Real Time Food Prices - Monthly food price inflation estimates by country

Real Time Food Prices (RTFP) is a live dataset compiled and updated weekly by the World Bank Development Economics Data Group (DECDG) using a combination of direct price measurement and Machine Learning estimation of missing price data. The historical and current estimates are based on price information gathered from the World Food Program (WFP), UN-Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), select National Statistical Offices, and are continually updated and revised as more price information becomes available. Real-time exchange rate data used in this process are from official and public sources.

To produce smooth price series, outliers in the data are often adjusted using non-parametric density estimation and other techniques. Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models are used to estimate intra-month price ranges. These models allow for excess kurtosis using a Generalized Error Distribution (GED). Open, High, Low, and Close price estimates are provided based on the modeled time-varying price distributions.

Data are produced from 2007 to the present and estimates are given for individual commodity items at geo-referenced market locations. Predicted data for missing entries are based on exchange rates, and price data available either at other market locations or from related price items.

RTFP estimates of historical and current prices may serve as proxies for sub-national price inflation series or national-level Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indicators when complete information is unavailable. Therefore, RTFP data may differ from other sources with official data, including the World Bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP) or inflation series reported in the World Development Indicators.