Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, MSc

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Personal profile

Personal information

Gabriela has been employed at the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) since October 2015. For the next years she will be working with the Horizon 2020 funded project IMPREX under the supervision of Prof. Jeroen Aerts and Dr Philip Ward. The IMPREX project aims to improve forecast skill of meteorological and hydrological extremes in Europe and their impacts, by applying dynamic model ensembles, process studies, new data assimilation techniques and high resolution modelling. Her work will focus on aspects of climate variability and extremes in flood and drought risk. Her main research goal is to develop a modelling framework, which enables the quantification of the effect of climate variability indices in flood and drought risk studies.

Before joining IVM, she completed a BSc. in Business Management (Recife, Brazil) and a MSc. in Environmental Management (Kiel, Germany). In 2015, Gabriela was a student researcher at the Technical University of Denmark where she developed her Master’s thesis titled 'Assessment of Coastal and Urban Flooding Applying Extreme Value Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Techniques'. This project was aligned with the Water Sensitive Cities project, which aims at improving flood resilience of cities. Prior to that, she was a student assistant at the Coastal Risk and Sea-Level Rise Research Group at the University of Kiel, Germany. Her research focused on exploring the socio-economic impact of sea-level rise and storm surge in Croatia.


Natural Hazard; Risk Assessment; Climate Variability; Hydrological and Extreme Statistics.


2015: MSc in Environmental Management, University of Kiel, Germany.

2012: BSc in Business Management, University of Pernambuco, Brazil.


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Climate Medicine & Life Sciences
Southern Oscillation Earth & Environmental Sciences
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Flood damage Engineering & Materials Science
Drought Engineering & Materials Science
Risk management Engineering & Materials Science
flood damage Earth & Environmental Sciences
cost Earth & Environmental Sciences

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Research Output 2017 2019

  • 5 Article
  • 1 Letter
  • 1 PhD Thesis - Research VU, graduation VU

Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

Guimarães Nobre, G., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. & Ward, P., 2019, In : Progress in Disaster Science. 2, 100022.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Open Access

Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods

Bischiniotis, K., van den Hurk, B., Coughlan de Perez, E., Veldkamp, T., Nobre, G. G. & Aerts, J., 1 Nov 2019, In : International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 40, p. 1-13 13 p., 101252.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Open Access
Risk management
natural disaster

Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers

Guimarães Nobre, G., Davenport, F., Bischiniotis, K., Veldkamp, T., Jongman, B., Funk, C. C., Husak, G., Ward, P. J. & Aerts, J. C. J. H., 25 Feb 2019, In : Science of the Total Environment. 653, p. 523-535 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Open Access

Floods, droughts and climate variability: From early warning to early action

Guimarães Nobre, G., 2019, 312 p.

Research output: PhD ThesisPhD Thesis - Research VU, graduation VUAcademic

Open Access

Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe

Guimarães Nobre, G., Hunink, J. E., Baruth, B., Aerts, J. C. J. H. & Ward, P. J., 4 Feb 2019, In : Scientific Reports. 9, 1, p. 1-13 13 p., 1277.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Open Access
Beta vulgaris
Crop Production