Green adaptation pathways for resilient basin futures under increasing extreme floods and droughts

In Europe, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events, together with their negative impacts on society and ecosystems, have increased over recent decades, and this trend is projected to continue in the future. Risks connected to extreme floods and drought present a high level of complexity and interconnectedness, posing a challenge to risk management. While efforts are in place to achieve a sustainable management of water-related risks, the scale of recent catastrophic event shows that new approaches and methodologies are needed to manage hydroclimatic risks both in the short and long-term. Nature-based solutions (NbS) offer an important strategy to achieve water-secure, climate-resilient societies and promote nature conservation. However, while NbS are potentially viable risk reduction and adaptation strategies for both flood and drought risks, gaps remain about their potential and limits under extreme floods and droughts as well as regarding their cost-effectiveness, co-benefits and trade-offs. A thorough understanding of how NbS can contribute to the effective management of dynamic multi-risks linked to extreme droughts and floods under changing climate conditions is paramount. Much focus is placed on large riverine systems. However, challenges due to extreme floods and droughts are also highly relevant for tributary catchments. On the one hand, impacts can be catastrophic, and on the other, as they are often less regulated compared to larger rivers they offer potential for nature-based solutions (NbS). In such settings, adaptation decisions can benefit not only local but also downstream areas and communities.
Taking up these challenges and opportunities, the proposed “Green adaptation pathways for resilient basin futures under increasing extreme floods and droughts” (GreenAdapt2Extremes) project aims at cocreating transformative adaptation pathways based on NbS. It will focus on the catchments of three highly flood and drought-prone tributary rivers: the Dora Baltea (Italy), the Geul (Netherlands) and the Erft (Germany). Importantly, the project will begin with the co-creation of “visions for resilient basin futures”, where stakeholders will be able to express their ambitions, needs, values and preferences for desirable future(s), and which will be considered in every subsequent activity of the project. Green adaptation pathways will be co-created with stakeholders in a transdisciplinary setting at the catchment scale, building on an analysis of (i) current and future drought and flood risk interconnections, and (ii) the co-benefits, potential, limits and social acceptability of NbS. The pathways will also serve as guidance for identifying recommendations for effective multi-level governance of risks and adaptation. The future decision space mapped through the green pathways will help improve the protection from floods and droughts for people, ecosystems and economic sectors. A participatory, mixed-methods approach (supported by existing information and local knowledge) will be adapted to the specific conditions of each case catchment. Planned dissemination and international networking activities will facilitate knowledge transfer and cross-boundary learning, but also support the evaluation of the transferability and upscaling potential of the project’s approach, methods and solutions.

Severe floods and droughts are becoming increasingly common in Europe, with detrimental consequences for society and our ecosystems. Risk management for these complex risks remains a challenge. Natural solutions, also called Nature-based Solutions (NbS), are crucial to ensure that our society and nature remain safe from water problems, and that we can adapt to the changing climate. However, there is still uncertainty about the effectiveness, costs, and trade-offs of NbS under extreme climate conditions.
The project "Green adaptation pathways for a resilient future for river basins under increasing extreme floods and droughts" (GreenAdapt2Extremes) focuses on three tributaries (Dora Baltea, Geul, Erft) that are sensitive to floods and droughts. The aim of the project is to work with stakeholders in these rivers to devise new ways to deal with floods and drought. Through a participatory approach, analysis of current and future risks, and evaluation of NbS, the project aims to achieve effective policy and management of risks and adaptation to these climate extremes. The ultimate goal of the project is to ensure that people, nature and economic sectors are better protected against floods and droughts.