A classification tree for predicting recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons

V.S. Stel, S.M.F. Pluijm, D.J.H. Deeg, J.H. Smit, L.M. Bouter, P.T.A.M. Lips

    Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    Abstract

    OBJECTIVES: To develop a classification tree for predicting the risk of recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons using tree-structured survival analysis (TSSA).

    DESIGN: A prospective cohort study.

    SETTING: A community in the Netherlands.

    PARTICIPANTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-five community-dwelling older persons (>/=65) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA).

    MEASUREMENTS: In 1995, physical, cognitive, emotional, and social aspects of functioning were assessed. Subsequently, a prospective fall follow-up, specifically on recurrent falls (two falls within 6 months) was conducted for 3 years.

    RESULTS: The classification tree included 11 end groups differing in risk of recurrent falling based on a minimum of two and a maximum of six predictors. The first split in the tree involved two or more falls versus fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview. Respondents with two or more falls in the year preceding the interview (n=193) and with at least two functional limitations (n=98) had a 75% risk of becoming a recurrent faller, whereas respondents with fewer than two functional limitations were further divided into a group with regular dizziness (n=11, risk of 68%) and a group with no regular dizziness (n=84, risk of 30%). In respondents with fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview (n=1,172), the risk of becoming a recurrent faller varied between 9% and 70%. Predictors in this branch of the tree were low performance, low handgrip strength, alcohol use, pain, high level of education, and high level of physical activity.

    CONCLUSION: This classification tree included 11 end groups differing in the risk of recurrent falling based on specific combinations of a maximum of six easily measurable predictors. The classification tree can identify subjects who are eligible for preventive measures in public health strategies.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1356-1364
    Number of pages9
    JournalJournal of the American Geriatrics Society
    Volume51
    Issue number10
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Oct 2003

    Fingerprint

    Accidental Falls
    Independent Living
    Dizziness
    Interviews
    Survival Analysis
    Netherlands
    Longitudinal Studies
    Cohort Studies
    Public Health
    Alcohols
    Prospective Studies
    Education
    Pain

    Keywords

    • Accidental Falls
    • Aged
    • Aged, 80 and over
    • Data Interpretation, Statistical
    • Female
    • Geriatric Assessment
    • Humans
    • Male
    • Netherlands
    • Predictive Value of Tests
    • Prospective Studies
    • Recurrence
    • Risk Assessment
    • Risk Factors
    • Journal Article
    • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

    Cite this

    Stel, V.S. ; Pluijm, S.M.F. ; Deeg, D.J.H. ; Smit, J.H. ; Bouter, L.M. ; Lips, P.T.A.M. / A classification tree for predicting recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons. In: Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 2003 ; Vol. 51, No. 10. pp. 1356-1364.
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    title = "A classification tree for predicting recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons",
    abstract = "OBJECTIVES: To develop a classification tree for predicting the risk of recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons using tree-structured survival analysis (TSSA).DESIGN: A prospective cohort study.SETTING: A community in the Netherlands.PARTICIPANTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-five community-dwelling older persons (>/=65) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA).MEASUREMENTS: In 1995, physical, cognitive, emotional, and social aspects of functioning were assessed. Subsequently, a prospective fall follow-up, specifically on recurrent falls (two falls within 6 months) was conducted for 3 years.RESULTS: The classification tree included 11 end groups differing in risk of recurrent falling based on a minimum of two and a maximum of six predictors. The first split in the tree involved two or more falls versus fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview. Respondents with two or more falls in the year preceding the interview (n=193) and with at least two functional limitations (n=98) had a 75{\%} risk of becoming a recurrent faller, whereas respondents with fewer than two functional limitations were further divided into a group with regular dizziness (n=11, risk of 68{\%}) and a group with no regular dizziness (n=84, risk of 30{\%}). In respondents with fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview (n=1,172), the risk of becoming a recurrent faller varied between 9{\%} and 70{\%}. Predictors in this branch of the tree were low performance, low handgrip strength, alcohol use, pain, high level of education, and high level of physical activity.CONCLUSION: This classification tree included 11 end groups differing in the risk of recurrent falling based on specific combinations of a maximum of six easily measurable predictors. The classification tree can identify subjects who are eligible for preventive measures in public health strategies.",
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    author = "V.S. Stel and S.M.F. Pluijm and D.J.H. Deeg and J.H. Smit and L.M. Bouter and P.T.A.M. Lips",
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    A classification tree for predicting recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons. / Stel, V.S.; Pluijm, S.M.F.; Deeg, D.J.H.; Smit, J.H.; Bouter, L.M.; Lips, P.T.A.M.

    In: Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, Vol. 51, No. 10, 10.2003, p. 1356-1364.

    Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - A classification tree for predicting recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons

    AU - Stel, V.S.

    AU - Pluijm, S.M.F.

    AU - Deeg, D.J.H.

    AU - Smit, J.H.

    AU - Bouter, L.M.

    AU - Lips, P.T.A.M.

    PY - 2003/10

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    N2 - OBJECTIVES: To develop a classification tree for predicting the risk of recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons using tree-structured survival analysis (TSSA).DESIGN: A prospective cohort study.SETTING: A community in the Netherlands.PARTICIPANTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-five community-dwelling older persons (>/=65) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA).MEASUREMENTS: In 1995, physical, cognitive, emotional, and social aspects of functioning were assessed. Subsequently, a prospective fall follow-up, specifically on recurrent falls (two falls within 6 months) was conducted for 3 years.RESULTS: The classification tree included 11 end groups differing in risk of recurrent falling based on a minimum of two and a maximum of six predictors. The first split in the tree involved two or more falls versus fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview. Respondents with two or more falls in the year preceding the interview (n=193) and with at least two functional limitations (n=98) had a 75% risk of becoming a recurrent faller, whereas respondents with fewer than two functional limitations were further divided into a group with regular dizziness (n=11, risk of 68%) and a group with no regular dizziness (n=84, risk of 30%). In respondents with fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview (n=1,172), the risk of becoming a recurrent faller varied between 9% and 70%. Predictors in this branch of the tree were low performance, low handgrip strength, alcohol use, pain, high level of education, and high level of physical activity.CONCLUSION: This classification tree included 11 end groups differing in the risk of recurrent falling based on specific combinations of a maximum of six easily measurable predictors. The classification tree can identify subjects who are eligible for preventive measures in public health strategies.

    AB - OBJECTIVES: To develop a classification tree for predicting the risk of recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons using tree-structured survival analysis (TSSA).DESIGN: A prospective cohort study.SETTING: A community in the Netherlands.PARTICIPANTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-five community-dwelling older persons (>/=65) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA).MEASUREMENTS: In 1995, physical, cognitive, emotional, and social aspects of functioning were assessed. Subsequently, a prospective fall follow-up, specifically on recurrent falls (two falls within 6 months) was conducted for 3 years.RESULTS: The classification tree included 11 end groups differing in risk of recurrent falling based on a minimum of two and a maximum of six predictors. The first split in the tree involved two or more falls versus fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview. Respondents with two or more falls in the year preceding the interview (n=193) and with at least two functional limitations (n=98) had a 75% risk of becoming a recurrent faller, whereas respondents with fewer than two functional limitations were further divided into a group with regular dizziness (n=11, risk of 68%) and a group with no regular dizziness (n=84, risk of 30%). In respondents with fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview (n=1,172), the risk of becoming a recurrent faller varied between 9% and 70%. Predictors in this branch of the tree were low performance, low handgrip strength, alcohol use, pain, high level of education, and high level of physical activity.CONCLUSION: This classification tree included 11 end groups differing in the risk of recurrent falling based on specific combinations of a maximum of six easily measurable predictors. The classification tree can identify subjects who are eligible for preventive measures in public health strategies.

    KW - Accidental Falls

    KW - Aged

    KW - Aged, 80 and over

    KW - Data Interpretation, Statistical

    KW - Female

    KW - Geriatric Assessment

    KW - Humans

    KW - Male

    KW - Netherlands

    KW - Predictive Value of Tests

    KW - Prospective Studies

    KW - Recurrence

    KW - Risk Assessment

    KW - Risk Factors

    KW - Journal Article

    KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

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    M3 - Article

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    JO - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society

    JF - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society

    SN - 0002-8614

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    ER -