A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions

Ileen N. Streefkerk*, Jens de Bruijn, Toon Haer, Anne F. Van Loon, Edisson A. Quichimbo, Marthe Wens, Khalid Hassaballah, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Drought is a persistent hazard that impacts the environment, people's livelihoods, access to education and food security. Adaptation choices made by people can influence the propagation of this drought hazard. However, few drought models incorporate adaptive behavior and feedbacks between adaptations and drought. In this research, we present a dynamic drought adaptation modeling framework, ADOPT-AP, which combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches. This approach is applied to agropastoral communities in dryland regions in Kenya. We couple the spatially explicit hydrological Dryland Water Partitioning (DRYP) model with a behavioral model capable of simulating different bounded rational behavioral theories (ADOPT). The results demonstrate that agropastoralists respond differently to drought due to differences in (perceptions of) their hydrological environment. Downstream communities are impacted more heavily and implement more short-term adaptation measures than upstream communities in the same catchment. Additional drivers of drought adaptation concern socio-economic factors such as wealth and distance to wells. We show that the uptake of drought adaptation influences soil moisture (positively through irrigation) and groundwater (negatively through abstraction) and, thus, the drought propagation through the hydrological cycle.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1037971
Pages (from-to)1-18
Number of pages18
JournalFrontiers in Water
Volume4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jan 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the European Commission as part of Horizon 2020 under DOWN2EARTH (Grant Agreement ID: 869550) and ERC Grant No. 884442. These funding sources had no involvement in the study design, collection, analysis, and interpretation of data or in the preparation or writing this article.

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 Streefkerk, de Bruijn, Haer, Van Loon, Quichimbo, Wens, Hassaballah and Aerts.

Keywords

  • agent-based model (ABM)
  • agropastoralists
  • drought
  • drylands
  • feedbacks
  • socio-hydrology

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this