A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism

M. Berrittella, A. Bigano, R. Roson, R.S.J. Tol

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)913-925
Number of pages12
JournalTourism Management
Volume27
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006

Fingerprint

general equilibrium analysis
Climate change
climate change
tourism
Tourism
tourist
regional economy
expenditure
expenditures
welfare
income
Economics
General equilibrium analysis
demand
economics

Cite this

Berrittella, M. ; Bigano, A. ; Roson, R. ; Tol, R.S.J. / A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism. In: Tourism Management. 2006 ; Vol. 27, No. 5. pp. 913-925.
@article{09848a544e6d45fd9c97577e62303faa,
title = "A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism",
abstract = "This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions. {\circledC} 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",
author = "M. Berrittella and A. Bigano and R. Roson and R.S.J. Tol",
year = "2006",
doi = "10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.002",
language = "English",
volume = "27",
pages = "913--925",
journal = "Tourism Management",
issn = "0261-5177",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "5",

}

A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism. / Berrittella, M.; Bigano, A.; Roson, R.; Tol, R.S.J.

In: Tourism Management, Vol. 27, No. 5, 2006, p. 913-925.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism

AU - Berrittella, M.

AU - Bigano, A.

AU - Roson, R.

AU - Tol, R.S.J.

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AB - This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

U2 - 10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.002

DO - 10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.002

M3 - Article

VL - 27

SP - 913

EP - 925

JO - Tourism Management

JF - Tourism Management

SN - 0261-5177

IS - 5

ER -