A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA

Jochen Hinkel, Robert James Nicholls, Richard S.J. Tol, Zheng B. Wang, Jacqueline M. Hamilton, Gerben Boot, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Loraine McFadden, Andrey Ganopolski, Richard J.T. Klein

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US$ 300-1000billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US$ 65-220billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)150-158
Number of pages9
JournalGlobal and Planetary Change
Volume111
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2013

Fingerprint

forced migration
beach
erosion
twenty first century
beach nourishment
tourism
cost
small island state
tidal inlet
coast
cost-benefit analysis
shoreline
economic development
estuary
sea level rise
analysis
sea level
climate
loss
land

Keywords

  • Beach nourishment
  • Climate adaptation
  • Climate impacts
  • Erosion
  • Sandy beaches
  • Tourism

Cite this

Hinkel, Jochen ; Nicholls, Robert James ; Tol, Richard S.J. ; Wang, Zheng B. ; Hamilton, Jacqueline M. ; Boot, Gerben ; Vafeidis, Athanasios T. ; McFadden, Loraine ; Ganopolski, Andrey ; Klein, Richard J.T. / A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise : An application of DIVA. In: Global and Planetary Change. 2013 ; Vol. 111. pp. 150-158.
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title = "A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA",
abstract = "This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US$ 300-1000billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US$ 65-220billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14{\%}, forced migration by 56-68{\%} and the cost of forced migration by 77-84{\%} (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4{\%} in 2000 to 18-33{\%} in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.",
keywords = "Beach nourishment, Climate adaptation, Climate impacts, Erosion, Sandy beaches, Tourism",
author = "Jochen Hinkel and Nicholls, {Robert James} and Tol, {Richard S.J.} and Wang, {Zheng B.} and Hamilton, {Jacqueline M.} and Gerben Boot and Vafeidis, {Athanasios T.} and Loraine McFadden and Andrey Ganopolski and Klein, {Richard J.T.}",
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Hinkel, J, Nicholls, RJ, Tol, RSJ, Wang, ZB, Hamilton, JM, Boot, G, Vafeidis, AT, McFadden, L, Ganopolski, A & Klein, RJT 2013, 'A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA' Global and Planetary Change, vol. 111, pp. 150-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002

A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise : An application of DIVA. / Hinkel, Jochen; Nicholls, Robert James; Tol, Richard S.J.; Wang, Zheng B.; Hamilton, Jacqueline M.; Boot, Gerben; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; McFadden, Loraine; Ganopolski, Andrey; Klein, Richard J.T.

In: Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 111, 12.2013, p. 150-158.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Tol, Richard S.J.

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AU - Hamilton, Jacqueline M.

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