A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela; D. C. Morton; L. Giglio; Y Chen; G. R. van der Werf; P. S. Kasibhatla; R. S. DeFries; G. J. Collatz; S. Hantson; S. Kloster; Dominique Bachelet; Matthew Forrest; Gitta Lasslop; F. Li; Stephane Mangeon; Joe R. Melton; Chao Yue; J. T. Randerson

doi:10.1126/science.aal4108

A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela
, D. C. Morton
, L. Giglio
, Y Chen
, G. R. van der Werf
, P. S. Kasibhatla
, R. S. DeFries
, G. J. Collatz
, S. Hantson
, S. Kloster
, Dominique Bachelet
, Matthew Forrest
, Gitta Lasslop
, F. Li
, Stephane Mangeon
, Joe R. Melton
, Chao Yue
, J. T. Randerson

Earth and Climate

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1356-1362
Number of pages	7
Journal	Science
Volume	356
Issue number	6345
Early online date	30 Jun 2017
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4108
Publication status	Published - 30 Jun 2017

Funding

Funders	Funder number
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Seventh Framework Programme	603445
NASA's Interdisciplinary Science and Carbon Monitoring System Programs
European Space Agency Fire-CCI
European Commission	603542
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation	GBMF3269
National Natural Science Foundation of China	41475099

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 2 Zero Hunger

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10.1126/science.aal4108

A human-driven decline in global burned areaFinal published version, 2.08 MBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

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Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., DeFries, R. S., Collatz, G. J., Hantson, S., Kloster, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Yue, C., & Randerson, J. T. (2017). A human-driven decline in global burned area. Science, 356(6345), 1356-1362. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4108

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title = "A human-driven decline in global burned area",

abstract = "Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8\% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.",

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AU - Andela, N.

AU - Morton, D. C.

AU - Giglio, L.

AU - Chen, Y

AU - van der Werf, G. R.

AU - Kasibhatla, P. S.

AU - DeFries, R. S.

AU - Collatz, G. J.

AU - Hantson, S.

AU - Kloster, S.

AU - Bachelet, Dominique

AU - Forrest, Matthew

AU - Lasslop, Gitta

AU - Li, F.

AU - Mangeon, Stephane

AU - Melton, Joe R.

AU - Yue, Chao

AU - Randerson, J. T.

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N2 - Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

AB - Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

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VL - 356

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JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6345

ER -

A human-driven decline in global burned area

Abstract

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UN SDGs

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