Abstract
Abstract
Background
Little is known about how conspiracy beliefs and health responses are interrelated over time during the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. This longitudinal study tested two contrasting, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses through cross-lagged modeling. First, based on the consequential nature of conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that conspiracy beliefs predict an increase in detrimental health responses over time. Second, as people may rationalize their behavior through conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that detrimental health responses predict increased conspiracy beliefs over time.
Methods
We measured conspiracy beliefs and several health-related responses (i.e. physical distancing, support for lockdown policy, and the perception of the coronavirus as dangerous) at three phases of the pandemic in the Netherlands (N = 4913): During the first lockdown (Wave 1: April 2020), after the first lockdown (Wave 2: June 2020), and during the second lockdown (Wave 3: December 2020).
Results
For physical distancing and perceived danger, the overall cross-lagged effects supported both hypotheses, although the standardized effects were larger for the effects of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses than vice versa. The within-person change results only supported an effect of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses, depending on the phase of the pandemic. Furthermore, an overall cross-lagged effect of conspiracy beliefs on reduced support for lockdown policy emerged from Wave 2 to 3.
Conclusions
The results provide stronger support for the hypothesis that conspiracy beliefs predict health responses over time than for the hypothesis that health responses predict conspiracy beliefs over time.
Background
Little is known about how conspiracy beliefs and health responses are interrelated over time during the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. This longitudinal study tested two contrasting, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses through cross-lagged modeling. First, based on the consequential nature of conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that conspiracy beliefs predict an increase in detrimental health responses over time. Second, as people may rationalize their behavior through conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that detrimental health responses predict increased conspiracy beliefs over time.
Methods
We measured conspiracy beliefs and several health-related responses (i.e. physical distancing, support for lockdown policy, and the perception of the coronavirus as dangerous) at three phases of the pandemic in the Netherlands (N = 4913): During the first lockdown (Wave 1: April 2020), after the first lockdown (Wave 2: June 2020), and during the second lockdown (Wave 3: December 2020).
Results
For physical distancing and perceived danger, the overall cross-lagged effects supported both hypotheses, although the standardized effects were larger for the effects of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses than vice versa. The within-person change results only supported an effect of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses, depending on the phase of the pandemic. Furthermore, an overall cross-lagged effect of conspiracy beliefs on reduced support for lockdown policy emerged from Wave 2 to 3.
Conclusions
The results provide stronger support for the hypothesis that conspiracy beliefs predict health responses over time than for the hypothesis that health responses predict conspiracy beliefs over time.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 5709-5716 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Psychological Medicine |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue number | 12 |
| Early online date | 26 Sept 2022 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Sept 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The contributions of Eerland, Boot, Verkoeijen, and Zwaan to this research were supported by a grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (440.20.003). Onderco acknowledges the support from Charles University Research Centre program UNCE/HUM/028 (Peace Research Center Prague/Faculty of Social Sciences).
Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press.
Funding
The contributions of Eerland, Boot, Verkoeijen, and Zwaan to this research were supported by a grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (440.20.003). Onderco acknowledges the support from Charles University Research Centre program UNCE/HUM/028 (Peace Research Center Prague/Faculty of Social Sciences).
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Univerzita Karlova v Praze | UNCE/HUM/028 |
| Univerzita Karlova v Praze | |
| Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek | 440.20.003 |
| Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek |
Keywords
- Conspiracy theories
- health-related beliefs
- longitudinal design
- physical distancing
- SARS-CoV2
