Objective: Given raised numbers of civil detentions in the Netherlands and other European countries, it is important to assess the patient risk profile with respect to the incidence of those far-reaching treatment decisions. The aim of the ASAP study is to develop a comprehensive prediction model that considers all possible patient-related predictors known from earlier research. Methods: We took a random sample of 252 from the 2,682 patients coming into contact with two psychiatric emergency teams in Amsterdam between September 2004 and September 2006. We recorded socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, aspects of social support and psychiatric history. We interviewed the patients using the Verona Service Satisfaction Scale (Verona-EU) and the Birchwood Insight Scale. During a two-year follow-up period we noted their use of mental health care facilities. Results: Stepwise logistic regression analyses with resulted in a final prediction model (P ≤ 0.001) including preceding involuntary admission (OR 9.4, 95 % CI 3.6-24.7, P ≤ 0.001), domestic situation alone (OR 4.5, 95 % CI 1.9-11.0, P = 0.001) and VSSS score satisfactory (OR 0.2, 95 % CI 0.0-0.8, P = 0.030) as predictors of civil detention during 2 years of follow-up. Conclusion: With the presented prediction model it will be possible to identify patients at a high risk of civil detention: patients with a history of previous involuntary admissions who live alone and are not satisfied with the mental health care they got before. This suggests the possibility that timely preventive measures can be taken comprising the adjustment or intensification of the treatment plan for this specific group of patients. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.