TY - GEN
T1 - A probabilistic approach to structural change prediction in evolving social networks
AU - Juszczyszyn, Krzysztof
AU - Gonczarek, Adam
AU - Tomczak, Jakub M.
AU - Musial, Katarzyna
AU - Budka, Marcin
PY - 2012/12/1
Y1 - 2012/12/1
N2 - We propose a predictive model of structural changes in elementary subgraphs of social network based on Mixture of Markov Chains. The model is trained and verified on a dataset from a large corporate social network analyzed in short, one day-long time windows, and reveals distinctive patterns of evolution of connections on the level of local network topology. We argue that the network investigated in such short timescales is highly dynamic and therefore immune to classic methods of link prediction and structural analysis, and show that in the case of complex networks, the dynamic subgraph mining may lead to better prediction accuracy. The experiments were carried out on the logs from the Wroclaw University of Technology mail server.
AB - We propose a predictive model of structural changes in elementary subgraphs of social network based on Mixture of Markov Chains. The model is trained and verified on a dataset from a large corporate social network analyzed in short, one day-long time windows, and reveals distinctive patterns of evolution of connections on the level of local network topology. We argue that the network investigated in such short timescales is highly dynamic and therefore immune to classic methods of link prediction and structural analysis, and show that in the case of complex networks, the dynamic subgraph mining may lead to better prediction accuracy. The experiments were carried out on the logs from the Wroclaw University of Technology mail server.
KW - Mixture of markov chains
KW - Prediction
KW - Social networks
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84874238598&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84874238598&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/ASONAM.2012.173
DO - 10.1109/ASONAM.2012.173
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84874238598
SN - 9780769547992
T3 - Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2012
SP - 996
EP - 1001
BT - Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2012
T2 - 2012 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2012
Y2 - 26 August 2012 through 29 August 2012
ER -