A Scenario Approach to the Simonshaven Case

Peter van Koppen, A.R. Mackor

Research output: Contribution to JournalReview articleAcademicpeer-review


In this paper, we present a scenario approach and apply it to the Simonshaven case. We offer an outline in which we spell out the core notions of the scenario approach. Next, we give a summing up of criteria to assess and compare scenarios. We use examples of the Simonshaven case to illustrate how the scenario-approach works. The last section contains a discussion of the main strengths and weaknesses of the scenario approach and a brief comparison with argumentation-based and probabilistic approaches.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1132-1151
Number of pages20
JournalTopics in Cognitive Science
Issue number4
Early online date2 Jun 2019
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2020

Bibliographical note

Special Issue: Models of Rational Proof in Criminal Law Editors: Henry Prakken, Floris Bex and Anne Ruth Mackor ‐ Levels of Explanation in Cognitive Science: From Molecules to Cultures Editors: Matteo Colombo and Markus Knauff.


  • Coherence
  • Discriminating evidence
  • Evidence
  • Falsification
  • Inference to the best explanation
  • Law
  • Novel facts
  • Scenario


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