A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning–Kruger Effect

Jan R. Magnus; Anatoly A. Peresetsky

doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.840180

A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning–Kruger Effect

Jan R. Magnus, Anatoly A. Peresetsky^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Econometrics and Data Science

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

An explanation of the Dunning–Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artifact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. The model fits the data almost perfectly. JEL Classification: A22; C24; C91; D84; D91; I21

Original language	English
Article number	840180
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Frontiers in Psychology
Volume	13
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.840180
Publication status	Published - 25 Mar 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We are grateful to two referees and to the editor for their positive and constructive comments.

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 Magnus and Peresetsky.

Keywords

boundary conditions
conditional expectation
Dunning–Kruger effect
tobit model
underestimation and overestimation

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10.3389/fpsyg.2022.840180

Cite this

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A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning–Kruger Effect

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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