A System Dynamics Supply Chain Analysis for the Sustainability Transition of European Rolled Aluminum Products

This research presents a system dynamics model to study the interaction among demand and supply evolutions, government regulations, sustainable adoption trends, investments in different decarbonization technologies, and environmental requirements for the European Aluminum Rolled Product Supply Chain (ARPSC). It allows stakeholders to assess the quantitative impact of investing in decarbonization technologies on supply chain sustainability. Investing in decarbonization technologies reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The most substantial GHG emission reductions can be achieved if upstream ARPSC actors invest according to an aggressive investment strategy between 2031 and 2040. However, even with an aggressive investment strategy, investing in decarbonization technologies alone is likely to be insufficient to achieve the European Green Deal goals. Furthermore, barriers to investment in decarbonization technologies and a low rate of progress in doubling the European Union’s circularity rate may put extra stress on achieving the European Green Deal goals for the European ARPSC. Instead, ARPSC actors will additionally need to optimize the recycling of aluminum rolled products and adopt strategies for resource sufficiency, e.g., by sharing cars and using packaging multiple times.