A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem

Tom W.N. Walker; Ivan A. Janssens; James T. Weedon; Bjarni D. Sigurdsson; Andreas Richter; Josep Peñuelas; Niki I.W. Leblans; Michael Bahn; Mireia Bartrons; Cindy De Jonge; Lucia Fuchslueger; Albert Gargallo-Garriga; Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir; Sara Marañón-Jiménez; Edda S. Oddsdóttir; Ivika Ostonen; Christopher Poeplau; Judith Prommer; Dajana Radujković; Jordi Sardans; Páll Sigurðsson; Jennifer L. Soong; Sara Vicca; Håkan Wallander; Krassimira Ilieva-Makulec; Erik Verbruggen

doi:10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3

A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem

Tom W.N. Walker^*, Ivan A. Janssens, James T. Weedon, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Andreas Richter, Josep Peñuelas, Niki I.W. Leblans, Michael Bahn, Mireia Bartrons, Cindy De Jonge, Lucia Fuchslueger, Albert Gargallo-Garriga, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Christopher Poeplau, Judith Prommer, Dajana Radujković, Jordi SardansPáll Sigurðsson, Jennifer L. Soong, Sara Vicca, Håkan Wallander, Krassimira Ilieva-Makulec, Erik Verbruggen

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Temperature governs most biotic processes, yet we know little about how warming affects whole ecosystems. Here we examined the responses of 128 components of a subarctic grassland to either 5–8 or >50 years of soil warming. Warming of >50 years drove the ecosystem to a new steady state possessing a distinct biotic composition and reduced species richness, biomass and soil organic matter. However, the warmed state was preceded by an overreaction to warming, which was related to organism physiology and was evident after 5–8 years. Ignoring this overreaction yielded errors of >100% for 83 variables when predicting their responses to a realistic warming scenario of 1 °C over 50 years, although some, including soil carbon content, remained stable after 5–8 years. This study challenges long-term ecosystem predictions made from short-term observations, and provides a framework for characterization of ecosystem responses to sustained climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	101-108
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Ecology and Evolution
Volume	4
Issue number	1
Early online date	9 Dec 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3
Publication status	Published - Jan 2020

Funding

T.W.N.W. is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. 31003A-176044). J.L.S. is supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research, the US Department of Energy (contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231). This work was further supported by a European Research Council Synergy Grant (no. ERC-2013-SyG 610028-IMBALANCE-P, awarded to I.A.J. and J.P.); a joint FWO–FWF grant (nos. FWO-G0F2217N and FWF-I-3237, awarded to I.A.J. and M.Bahn); three European Union Marie Skłodowska-Curie grants (nos. COFUND-291780 and Fellowship-676108, awarded to S.M.J., and Fellowship-707270, awarded to C.d.J.); a Flanders Research Foundation Aspiration Grant (no. 11G1613N, awarded to N.I.W.L.); the Research Fund of the University of Antwerp (TOP-BOF and Methusalem grants, awarded to I.A.J.); grants from the Spanish Government (no. CGL2016-79835-P), the Catalan Government (no. SGR 2017-1005) and the Institut d’Estudis Catalans (no. PRO2008-SO2-PENUELAS) awarded to J.P.; the Icelandic Research Fund (no. 163272-053 FORHOT-FOREST, awarded to B.D.S.); a JPI Climate Project (COUP-Austria, no. BMWFW-6.020/0008, awarded to A.R.); and the European Regional Development Fund (Estonia, Centre of Excellence ENVIRON and EcolChange). We also thank the Agricultural University of Iceland and Icelandic Forest Research for logistical support.

Funders	Funder number
Catalan Government	SGR 2017-1005
Flanders Research Foundation	11G1613N
Icelandic Research Fund	163272-053 FORHOT-FOREST, BMWFW-6.020/0008
Office of Biological and Environmental Research
Spanish Government	CGL2016-79835-P
TOP-BOF
US Department of Energy	DE-AC02-05CH11231
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	676108, 291780
H2020 European Research Council
H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions	COFUND-291780
Seventh Framework Programme	610028
European Research Council	FWF-I-3237, FWO-G0F2217N
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung	31003A-176044
Austrian Science Fund	FWF-FWO I3237
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	FWF-FWO G0F2217N
Universiteit Antwerpen
European Regional Development Fund
Institut d'Estudis Catalans	PRO2008-SO2-PENUELAS

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystemAccepted author manuscript, 1.62 MBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act
A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystemFinal published version, 1.39 MBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

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Walker, T. W. N., Janssens, I. A., Weedon, J. T., Sigurdsson, B. D., Richter, A., Peñuelas, J., Leblans, N. I. W., Bahn, M., Bartrons, M., De Jonge, C., Fuchslueger, L., Gargallo-Garriga, A., Gunnarsdóttir, G. E., Marañón-Jiménez, S., Oddsdóttir, E. S., Ostonen, I., Poeplau, C., Prommer, J., Radujković, D., ... Verbruggen, E. (2020). A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(1), 101-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3

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abstract = "Temperature governs most biotic processes, yet we know little about how warming affects whole ecosystems. Here we examined the responses of 128 components of a subarctic grassland to either 5–8 or >50 years of soil warming. Warming of >50 years drove the ecosystem to a new steady state possessing a distinct biotic composition and reduced species richness, biomass and soil organic matter. However, the warmed state was preceded by an overreaction to warming, which was related to organism physiology and was evident after 5–8 years. Ignoring this overreaction yielded errors of >100% for 83 variables when predicting their responses to a realistic warming scenario of 1 °C over 50 years, although some, including soil carbon content, remained stable after 5–8 years. This study challenges long-term ecosystem predictions made from short-term observations, and provides a framework for characterization of ecosystem responses to sustained climate change.",

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Walker, TWN, Janssens, IA, Weedon, JT, Sigurdsson, BD, Richter, A, Peñuelas, J, Leblans, NIW, Bahn, M, Bartrons, M, De Jonge, C, Fuchslueger, L, Gargallo-Garriga, A, Gunnarsdóttir, GE, Marañón-Jiménez, S, Oddsdóttir, ES, Ostonen, I, Poeplau, C, Prommer, J, Radujković, D, Sardans, J, Sigurðsson, P, Soong, JL, Vicca, S, Wallander, H, Ilieva-Makulec, K & Verbruggen, E 2020, 'A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem', Nature Ecology and Evolution, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 101-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3

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AU - Prommer, Judith

AU - Radujković, Dajana

AU - Sardans, Jordi

AU - Sigurðsson, Páll

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A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem

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