A Temporal-Causal Model for Spread of Messages in Disasters

E. Fernandes de Mello Araujo, Annelore Franke, Rukshar Wagid Hosain

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review


In this paper we describe a temporal-causal model for the spread of messages in disaster situations based on emotion contagion and awareness works. An evaluation of the model has been done by simulation experiments and mathematical analysis. Parameter tuning was done based on two scenarios, including a credible message and a dubious message. The results are useful for the prediction of reactions during disasters, and can be extended to other applications that involve panic and supportive systems to assist people.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationConference on Computational Collective Intelligence Technologies and Applications
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-67077-5
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-67076-8
Publication statusPublished - 7 Sep 2017


  • Agent-based model
  • Disaster
  • Temporal-causal modeling


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