Abolishing Policy-Induced Dropout in Dutch Higher Education due to Covid-19. Exploring Trends in Future Academic Performance

This study uses the unique opportunity of the Covid-19 pandemic to examine the future academic performance of students who would otherwise be academically dismissed. We utilize a Machine Learning model based on solely pre-pandemic information to account for potential Covid-19 effects on academic performance. We show that students continue studying at the same pace in year two, regardless of receiving a waiver or being dismissed. Extrapolating the results, we show that students who would normally have been dismissed will continue progressing at the same pace towards graduation. We discuss the implications for the ongoing discussion on academic dismissal policies.