Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information

Tim Baarslag, Koen Hindriks

Research output: Contribution to ConferencePaperAcademic

Abstract

When a negotiating agent is presented with an offer by its opponent, it is faced with a decision: it can accept the offer that is currently on the table, or it can reject it and continue the negotiation. Both options involve an inherent risk: continuing the negotiation carries the risk of forgoing a possibly optimal offer, whereas accepting runs the risk of missing out on an even better future offer. We approach the decision of whether to accept as a sequential decision problem, by modeling the bids received as a stochastic process. We argue that this is a natural choice in the context of a negotiation with incomplete information, where the future behavior of the opponent is uncertain. We determine the optimal acceptance policies for particular opponent classes and we present an approach to estimate the expected range of offers when the type of opponent is unknown. We apply our method against a wide range of opponents, and compare its performance with acceptance mechanisms of state-of-the-art negotiation strategies. The experiments show that the proposed approach is able to find the optimal time to accept, and improves upon widely used existing acceptance mechanisms.

Original languageEnglish
Pages715-722
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2013
Externally publishedYes
Event12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013 - Saint Paul, MN, United States
Duration: 6 May 201310 May 2013

Conference

Conference12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013
CountryUnited States
CitySaint Paul, MN
Period6/05/1310/05/13

Fingerprint

Random processes
Experiments

Keywords

  • Acceptance strategy
  • Negotiation
  • Optimal stopping

Cite this

Baarslag, T., & Hindriks, K. (2013). Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information. 715-722. Paper presented at 12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013, Saint Paul, MN, United States.
Baarslag, Tim ; Hindriks, Koen. / Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information. Paper presented at 12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013, Saint Paul, MN, United States.8 p.
@conference{1fd62962cac740c692fad19060d588ff,
title = "Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information",
abstract = "When a negotiating agent is presented with an offer by its opponent, it is faced with a decision: it can accept the offer that is currently on the table, or it can reject it and continue the negotiation. Both options involve an inherent risk: continuing the negotiation carries the risk of forgoing a possibly optimal offer, whereas accepting runs the risk of missing out on an even better future offer. We approach the decision of whether to accept as a sequential decision problem, by modeling the bids received as a stochastic process. We argue that this is a natural choice in the context of a negotiation with incomplete information, where the future behavior of the opponent is uncertain. We determine the optimal acceptance policies for particular opponent classes and we present an approach to estimate the expected range of offers when the type of opponent is unknown. We apply our method against a wide range of opponents, and compare its performance with acceptance mechanisms of state-of-the-art negotiation strategies. The experiments show that the proposed approach is able to find the optimal time to accept, and improves upon widely used existing acceptance mechanisms.",
keywords = "Acceptance strategy, Negotiation, Optimal stopping",
author = "Tim Baarslag and Koen Hindriks",
year = "2013",
month = "1",
day = "1",
language = "English",
pages = "715--722",
note = "12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013 ; Conference date: 06-05-2013 Through 10-05-2013",

}

Baarslag, T & Hindriks, K 2013, 'Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information' Paper presented at 12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013, Saint Paul, MN, United States, 6/05/13 - 10/05/13, pp. 715-722.

Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information. / Baarslag, Tim; Hindriks, Koen.

2013. 715-722 Paper presented at 12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013, Saint Paul, MN, United States.

Research output: Contribution to ConferencePaperAcademic

TY - CONF

T1 - Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information

AU - Baarslag, Tim

AU - Hindriks, Koen

PY - 2013/1/1

Y1 - 2013/1/1

N2 - When a negotiating agent is presented with an offer by its opponent, it is faced with a decision: it can accept the offer that is currently on the table, or it can reject it and continue the negotiation. Both options involve an inherent risk: continuing the negotiation carries the risk of forgoing a possibly optimal offer, whereas accepting runs the risk of missing out on an even better future offer. We approach the decision of whether to accept as a sequential decision problem, by modeling the bids received as a stochastic process. We argue that this is a natural choice in the context of a negotiation with incomplete information, where the future behavior of the opponent is uncertain. We determine the optimal acceptance policies for particular opponent classes and we present an approach to estimate the expected range of offers when the type of opponent is unknown. We apply our method against a wide range of opponents, and compare its performance with acceptance mechanisms of state-of-the-art negotiation strategies. The experiments show that the proposed approach is able to find the optimal time to accept, and improves upon widely used existing acceptance mechanisms.

AB - When a negotiating agent is presented with an offer by its opponent, it is faced with a decision: it can accept the offer that is currently on the table, or it can reject it and continue the negotiation. Both options involve an inherent risk: continuing the negotiation carries the risk of forgoing a possibly optimal offer, whereas accepting runs the risk of missing out on an even better future offer. We approach the decision of whether to accept as a sequential decision problem, by modeling the bids received as a stochastic process. We argue that this is a natural choice in the context of a negotiation with incomplete information, where the future behavior of the opponent is uncertain. We determine the optimal acceptance policies for particular opponent classes and we present an approach to estimate the expected range of offers when the type of opponent is unknown. We apply our method against a wide range of opponents, and compare its performance with acceptance mechanisms of state-of-the-art negotiation strategies. The experiments show that the proposed approach is able to find the optimal time to accept, and improves upon widely used existing acceptance mechanisms.

KW - Acceptance strategy

KW - Negotiation

KW - Optimal stopping

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84899453384&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84899453384&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Paper

SP - 715

EP - 722

ER -

Baarslag T, Hindriks K. Accepting optimally in automated negotiation with incomplete information. 2013. Paper presented at 12th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems 2013, AAMAS 2013, Saint Paul, MN, United States.