Accuracy of Physical Therapists' Early Predictions of Upper-Limb Function in Hospital Stroke Units: The EPOS Study

Background. Early prediction of outcome after stroke is becoming increasingly important, as most patients are discharged from hospital stroke units within several days after stroke. Objectives. The primary purposes of this study were: (1) to determine the accuracy of physical therapists' predictions at hospital stroke units regarding upperlimb (UL) function, (2) to develop a computational prediction model (CPM), and (3) to compare the accuracy of physical therapists' and the CPM's predictions. Secondary objectives were to explore the impact of timing on the accuracy of the physical therapists' and CPM's predictions and to investigate the direction of the difference between predicted and observed outcomes. Finally, this study investigated whether the accuracy of physical therapists' predictions was affected by their experience in stroke rehabilitation. Design. A prospective cohort study was conducted. Methods. Physical therapists made predictions at 2 time points-within 72 hours after stroke onset (T