Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

Gabriela Guimarães Nobre; Sanne Muis; Ted I.E. Veldkamp; Philip J. Ward

doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022

Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

Gabriela Guimarães Nobre^*, Sanne Muis, Ted I.E. Veldkamp, Philip J. Ward

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Review article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.

Original language	English
Article number	100022
Pages (from-to)	1-6
Number of pages	6
Journal	Progress in Disaster Science
Volume	2
Early online date	15 May 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022
Publication status	Published - Jul 2019

Funding

The research leading to this article is funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme through the project IMPREX (grant agreement no. 641811 ). P.J.W. received additional support from the NetherlandsOrganisation for Scientific Research (NWO) in the form of VIDI grant 016.161.324 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the use of products and maps generated by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University. The research leading to this article is funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme through the project IMPREX (grant agreement no. 641811). P.J.W. received additional support from the NetherlandsOrganisation for Scientific Research (NWO) in the form of VIDI grant 016.161.324. The authors gratefully acknowledge the use of products and maps generated by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University.

Funders	Funder number
International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University
NetherlandsOrganisation for Scientific Research
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	641811
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	016.161.324

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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title = "Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Ni{\~n}o and La Ni{\~n}a",

abstract = "Extreme phases of the El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.",

author = "{Guimar{\~a}es Nobre}, Gabriela and Sanne Muis and Veldkamp, {Ted I.E.} and Ward, {Philip J.}",

year = "2019",

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AU - Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela

AU - Muis, Sanne

AU - Veldkamp, Ted I.E.

AU - Ward, Philip J.

PY - 2019/7

Y1 - 2019/7

N2 - Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.

AB - Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.

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ER -

Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

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UN SDGs

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