TY - JOUR
T1 - Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña
AU - Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela
AU - Muis, Sanne
AU - Veldkamp, Ted I.E.
AU - Ward, Philip J.
PY - 2019/7
Y1 - 2019/7
N2 - Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.
AB - Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85086076711&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85086076711&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022
DO - 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:85086076711
SN - 2590-0617
VL - 2
SP - 1
EP - 6
JO - Progress in Disaster Science
JF - Progress in Disaster Science
M1 - 100022
ER -
