Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.
Original languageEnglish
Article number100022
Pages (from-to)1-6
Number of pages6
JournalProgress in Disaster Science
Volume2
Early online date15 May 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2019

Fingerprint

Southern Oscillation
disaster
crop yield
stakeholder
flooding
drought
rainfall
damage
climate
economics
river

Cite this

@article{32332167177241059eb04bc852afa1cc,
title = "Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Ni{\~n}o and La Ni{\~n}a",
abstract = "Extreme phases of the El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.",
author = "{Guimar{\~a}es Nobre}, Gabriela and Sanne Muis and Ted Veldkamp and Philip Ward",
year = "2019",
month = "7",
doi = "10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022",
language = "English",
volume = "2",
pages = "1--6",
journal = "Progress in Disaster Science",

}

Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña. / Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Muis, Sanne; Veldkamp, Ted; Ward, Philip.

In: Progress in Disaster Science, Vol. 2, 100022, 07.2019, p. 1-6.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

AU - Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela

AU - Muis, Sanne

AU - Veldkamp, Ted

AU - Ward, Philip

PY - 2019/7

Y1 - 2019/7

N2 - Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.

AB - Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts.

U2 - 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022

DO - 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022

M3 - Article

VL - 2

SP - 1

EP - 6

JO - Progress in Disaster Science

JF - Progress in Disaster Science

M1 - 100022

ER -