Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy

Gian Luca Spadoni; Jose V. Moris; Giorgio Vacchiano; Mario Elia; Matteo Garbarino; Emanuele Sibona; Antonio Tomao; Anna Barbati; Lorenzo Sallustio; Luca Salvati; Carlotta Ferrara; Saverio Francini; Enrico Bonis; Ilaria Dalla Vecchia; Andrea Strollo; Marco Di Leginio; Michele Munafò; Gherardo Chirici; Raoul Romano; Piermaria Corona; Marco Marchetti; Antonio Brunori; Renzo Motta; Davide Ascoli

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164281

Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy

Gian Luca Spadoni^*, Jose V. Moris, Giorgio Vacchiano, Mario Elia, Matteo Garbarino, Emanuele Sibona, Antonio Tomao, Anna Barbati, Lorenzo Sallustio, Luca Salvati, Carlotta Ferrara, Saverio Francini, Enrico Bonis, Ilaria Dalla Vecchia, Andrea Strollo, Marco Di Leginio, Michele Munafò, Gherardo Chirici, Raoul Romano, Piermaria CoronaMarco Marchetti, Antonio Brunori, Renzo Motta, Davide Ascoli

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Wildfire regimes affected by global change have been the cause of major concern in recent years. Both direct prevention (e.g., fuel management planning) and land governance strategies (e.g., agroforestry development) can have an indirect regulatory effect on wildfires. Herein, we tested the hypothesis that active land planning and management in Italy have mitigated wildfire impacts in terms of loss of ecosystem services and forest cover, and burned wildland-urban interface, from 2007 to 2017. At the national scale, we assessed the effect size of major potential fire drivers such as climate, weather, flammability, socio-economic descriptors, land use changes, and proxies for land governance (e.g., European funds for rural development, investments in sustainable forest management, agro-pastoral activities), including potential interactions, on fire-related impacts via Random Forest modelling and Generalized Additive Mixed Model. Agro-forest districts (i.e., aggregations of neighbouring municipalities with homogeneous forest and agricultural characteristics) were used as spatial units of analysis. Our results confirm that territories with more active land governance show lower wildfire impacts, even under severe flammability and climatic conditions. This study supports current regional, national, and European strategies towards “fire resistant and resilient landscapes” by fostering agro-forestry, rural development, and nature conservation integrated policies.

Original language	English
Article number	164281
Pages (from-to)	1-15
Number of pages	15
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	890
Early online date	20 May 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164281
Publication status	Published - 10 Sept 2023
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Funding

This paper and related research have been conducted during and with the support of the Italian inter-university PhD course in sustainable development and climate change (link: www.phd-sdc.it). This study was carried out within the Agritech National Research Center and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (PIANO NAZIONALE DI RIPRESA E RESILIENZA (PNRR) \u2013 MISSIONE 4 COMPONENTE 2, INVESTIMENTO 1.4 \u2013 D.D. 1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022). \u201CNext change risks\u201D and a baseline for the fulfilment of the milestones within the Task 4.3.3 titled: \u201CSet-up of the ensemble of innovative models for productivity and vulnerability prediction under climate change scenarios. In particular, our study represents an original paper related to the Spoke 4 \u2013 \u201CRisk management strategies and policies in the context of climate change\u201D. This manuscript reflects only the authors' views and opinions, neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them. The authors acknowledge the support of NBFC to University of Florence, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, PNRR, Missione 4 Componente 2, \u201CDalla ricerca all'impresa\u201D, Investimento 1.4, Project CN00000033. J.V.M. acknowledges the support from a postdoctoral fellowship funded by the Government of Asturias (Spain) through FICYT (AYUD/2021/58534). This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. We wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers who significantly contributed to improve the quality of the manuscript. This study was carried out within the Agritech National Research Center and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (PIANO NAZIONALE DI RIPRESA E RESILIENZA (PNRR) \u2013 MISSIONE 4 COMPONENTE 2, INVESTIMENTO 1.4 \u2013 D.D. 1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022). \u201CNext change risks\u201D and a baseline for the fulfilment of the milestones within the Task 4.3.3 titled: \u201CSet-up of the ensemble of innovative models for productivity and vulnerability prediction under climate change scenarios. In particular, our study represents an original paper related to the Spoke 4 \u2013 \u201CRisk management strategies and policies in the context of climate change\u201D. This manuscript reflects only the authors' views and opinions, neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them. The authors acknowledge the support of NBFC to University of Florence, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, PNRR, Missione 4 Componente 2, \u201CDalla ricerca all'impresa\u201D, Investimento 1.4, Project CN00000033. J.V.M. acknowledges the support from a postdoctoral fellowship funded by the Government of Asturias (Spain) through FICYT (AYUD/2021/58534).

Funders	Funder number
NBFC
European Commission
government of Asturias
European Union Next-Generation EU	1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	758855
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia	Incentivo/SAU/LA0001/2013
Fundación para el Fomento en Asturias de la Investigación Científica Aplicada y la Tecnología	AYUD/2021/58534
Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca	CN00000033

Keywords

Ecosystem services
Fire drivers
Fire severity
Random Forest
Wildland-urban interface

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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164281

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Cite this

Spadoni, G. L., Moris, J. V., Vacchiano, G., Elia, M., Garbarino, M., Sibona, E., Tomao, A., Barbati, A., Sallustio, L., Salvati, L., Ferrara, C., Francini, S., Bonis, E., Dalla Vecchia, I., Strollo, A., Di Leginio, M., Munafò, M., Chirici, G., Romano, R., ... Ascoli, D. (2023). Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy. Science of the Total Environment, 890, 1-15. Article 164281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164281

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title = "Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy",

abstract = "Wildfire regimes affected by global change have been the cause of major concern in recent years. Both direct prevention (e.g., fuel management planning) and land governance strategies (e.g., agroforestry development) can have an indirect regulatory effect on wildfires. Herein, we tested the hypothesis that active land planning and management in Italy have mitigated wildfire impacts in terms of loss of ecosystem services and forest cover, and burned wildland-urban interface, from 2007 to 2017. At the national scale, we assessed the effect size of major potential fire drivers such as climate, weather, flammability, socio-economic descriptors, land use changes, and proxies for land governance (e.g., European funds for rural development, investments in sustainable forest management, agro-pastoral activities), including potential interactions, on fire-related impacts via Random Forest modelling and Generalized Additive Mixed Model. Agro-forest districts (i.e., aggregations of neighbouring municipalities with homogeneous forest and agricultural characteristics) were used as spatial units of analysis. Our results confirm that territories with more active land governance show lower wildfire impacts, even under severe flammability and climatic conditions. This study supports current regional, national, and European strategies towards “fire resistant and resilient landscapes” by fostering agro-forestry, rural development, and nature conservation integrated policies.",

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author = "Spadoni, \{Gian Luca\} and Moris, \{Jose V.\} and Giorgio Vacchiano and Mario Elia and Matteo Garbarino and Emanuele Sibona and Antonio Tomao and Anna Barbati and Lorenzo Sallustio and Luca Salvati and Carlotta Ferrara and Saverio Francini and Enrico Bonis and \{Dalla Vecchia\}, Ilaria and Andrea Strollo and \{Di Leginio\}, Marco and Michele Munaf{\`o} and Gherardo Chirici and Raoul Romano and Piermaria Corona and Marco Marchetti and Antonio Brunori and Renzo Motta and Davide Ascoli",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 Elsevier B.V.",

year = "2023",

month = sep,

day = "10",

doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164281",

language = "English",

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Spadoni, GL, Moris, JV, Vacchiano, G, Elia, M, Garbarino, M, Sibona, E, Tomao, A, Barbati, A, Sallustio, L, Salvati, L, Ferrara, C, Francini, S, Bonis, E, Dalla Vecchia, I, Strollo, A, Di Leginio, M, Munafò, M, Chirici, G, Romano, R, Corona, P, Marchetti, M, Brunori, A, Motta, R & Ascoli, D 2023, 'Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy', Science of the Total Environment, vol. 890, 164281, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164281

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T1 - Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy

AU - Spadoni, Gian Luca

AU - Moris, Jose V.

AU - Vacchiano, Giorgio

AU - Elia, Mario

AU - Garbarino, Matteo

AU - Sibona, Emanuele

AU - Tomao, Antonio

AU - Barbati, Anna

AU - Sallustio, Lorenzo

AU - Salvati, Luca

AU - Ferrara, Carlotta

AU - Francini, Saverio

AU - Bonis, Enrico

AU - Dalla Vecchia, Ilaria

AU - Strollo, Andrea

AU - Di Leginio, Marco

AU - Munafò, Michele

AU - Chirici, Gherardo

AU - Romano, Raoul

AU - Corona, Piermaria

AU - Marchetti, Marco

AU - Brunori, Antonio

AU - Motta, Renzo

AU - Ascoli, Davide

PY - 2023/9/10

Y1 - 2023/9/10

N2 - Wildfire regimes affected by global change have been the cause of major concern in recent years. Both direct prevention (e.g., fuel management planning) and land governance strategies (e.g., agroforestry development) can have an indirect regulatory effect on wildfires. Herein, we tested the hypothesis that active land planning and management in Italy have mitigated wildfire impacts in terms of loss of ecosystem services and forest cover, and burned wildland-urban interface, from 2007 to 2017. At the national scale, we assessed the effect size of major potential fire drivers such as climate, weather, flammability, socio-economic descriptors, land use changes, and proxies for land governance (e.g., European funds for rural development, investments in sustainable forest management, agro-pastoral activities), including potential interactions, on fire-related impacts via Random Forest modelling and Generalized Additive Mixed Model. Agro-forest districts (i.e., aggregations of neighbouring municipalities with homogeneous forest and agricultural characteristics) were used as spatial units of analysis. Our results confirm that territories with more active land governance show lower wildfire impacts, even under severe flammability and climatic conditions. This study supports current regional, national, and European strategies towards “fire resistant and resilient landscapes” by fostering agro-forestry, rural development, and nature conservation integrated policies.

AB - Wildfire regimes affected by global change have been the cause of major concern in recent years. Both direct prevention (e.g., fuel management planning) and land governance strategies (e.g., agroforestry development) can have an indirect regulatory effect on wildfires. Herein, we tested the hypothesis that active land planning and management in Italy have mitigated wildfire impacts in terms of loss of ecosystem services and forest cover, and burned wildland-urban interface, from 2007 to 2017. At the national scale, we assessed the effect size of major potential fire drivers such as climate, weather, flammability, socio-economic descriptors, land use changes, and proxies for land governance (e.g., European funds for rural development, investments in sustainable forest management, agro-pastoral activities), including potential interactions, on fire-related impacts via Random Forest modelling and Generalized Additive Mixed Model. Agro-forest districts (i.e., aggregations of neighbouring municipalities with homogeneous forest and agricultural characteristics) were used as spatial units of analysis. Our results confirm that territories with more active land governance show lower wildfire impacts, even under severe flammability and climatic conditions. This study supports current regional, national, and European strategies towards “fire resistant and resilient landscapes” by fostering agro-forestry, rural development, and nature conservation integrated policies.

KW - Ecosystem services

KW - Fire drivers

KW - Fire severity

KW - Random Forest

KW - Wildland-urban interface

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Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy

Abstract

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Keywords

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