African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

M.I. Vousdoukas; Joanne Clarke; Roshanka Ranasinghe; Lena Reimann; Nadia Khalaf; Trang Minh Duong; Birgitt Ouweneel; Salma Sabour; Carley E. Iles; Christopher H. Trisos; Luc Feyen; Lorenzo Mentaschi; Nicholas P. Simpson

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

M.I. Vousdoukas
, Joanne Clarke
, Roshanka Ranasinghe
, Lena Reimann
, Nadia Khalaf
, Trang Minh Duong
, Birgitt Ouweneel
, Salma Sabour
, Carley E. Iles
, Christopher H. Trisos
, Luc Feyen
, Lorenzo Mentaschi
, Nicholas P. Simpson

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	256-262
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	12
Issue number	3
Early online date	12 Feb 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
Publication status	Published - Mar 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
R.R. is partially supported by the AXA Research Fund. N.P.S. received financial support from the UK government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (grant no. 109419 – 001). C.H.T. is supported by the FLAIR Fellowship Programme: a partnership between the African Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society funded by the UK government’s Global Challenges Research Fund. N.K. is supported by the Mapping Africa’s Endangered Archaeological Sites and Monuments project funded by Arcadia Fund, UK. S.S. is supported by the Leverhulme Trust Doctoral Training Scheme, UK.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Funding

R.R. is partially supported by the AXA Research Fund. N.P.S. received financial support from the UK government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (grant no. 109419 – 001). C.H.T. is supported by the FLAIR Fellowship Programme: a partnership between the African Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society funded by the UK government’s Global Challenges Research Fund. N.K. is supported by the Mapping Africa’s Endangered Archaeological Sites and Monuments project funded by Arcadia Fund, UK. S.S. is supported by the Leverhulme Trust Doctoral Training Scheme, UK.

Funders	Funder number
AXA Research Fund
African Academy of Sciences
Leverhulme Trust
Royal Society
International Development Research Centre	109419 – 001
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/P015638/1

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

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Cite this

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title = "African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates",

abstract = "The African coast contains heritage sites of {\textquoteleft}Outstanding Universal Value{\textquoteright} that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20\%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25\%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.",

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note = "Funding Information: R.R. is partially supported by the AXA Research Fund. N.P.S. received financial support from the UK government{\textquoteright}s Foreign, Commonwealth \& Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (grant no. 109419 – 001). C.H.T. is supported by the FLAIR Fellowship Programme: a partnership between the African Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society funded by the UK government{\textquoteright}s Global Challenges Research Fund. N.K. is supported by the Mapping Africa{\textquoteright}s Endangered Archaeological Sites and Monuments project funded by Arcadia Fund, UK. S.S. is supported by the Leverhulme Trust Doctoral Training Scheme, UK. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

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African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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