Abstract
Deforestation is currently the major threat to Amazonian tree species but climate change may surpass it in just a few decades. Here, we show that climate and deforestation combined could cause a decline of up to 58% in Amazon tree species richness, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36% and climate change 31–37% by 2050. Quantification is achieved by overlaying species distribution models for current and future climate change scenarios with historical and projected deforestation. Species may lose an average of 65% of their original environmentally suitable area, and a total of 53% may be threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria; however, Amazonian protected area networks reduce these impacts. The worst-case combined scenario—assuming no substantial climate or deforestation policy progress—suggests that by 2050 the Amazonian lowland rainforest may be cut into two blocks: one continuous block with 53% of the original area and another severely fragmented block. This outlook urges rapid progress to zero deforestation, which would help to mitigate climate change and foster biodiversity conservation.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 547-553 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Nature Climate Change |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| Early online date | 24 Jun 2019 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Jul 2019 |
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Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change. / Gomes, Vitor H.F.; Vieira, Ima C.G.; Salomão, Rafael P.; ter Steege, Hans.
In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 7, 01.07.2019, p. 547-553.Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change
AU - Gomes, Vitor H.F.
AU - Vieira, Ima C.G.
AU - Salomão, Rafael P.
AU - ter Steege, Hans
PY - 2019/7/1
Y1 - 2019/7/1
N2 - Deforestation is currently the major threat to Amazonian tree species but climate change may surpass it in just a few decades. Here, we show that climate and deforestation combined could cause a decline of up to 58% in Amazon tree species richness, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36% and climate change 31–37% by 2050. Quantification is achieved by overlaying species distribution models for current and future climate change scenarios with historical and projected deforestation. Species may lose an average of 65% of their original environmentally suitable area, and a total of 53% may be threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria; however, Amazonian protected area networks reduce these impacts. The worst-case combined scenario—assuming no substantial climate or deforestation policy progress—suggests that by 2050 the Amazonian lowland rainforest may be cut into two blocks: one continuous block with 53% of the original area and another severely fragmented block. This outlook urges rapid progress to zero deforestation, which would help to mitigate climate change and foster biodiversity conservation.
AB - Deforestation is currently the major threat to Amazonian tree species but climate change may surpass it in just a few decades. Here, we show that climate and deforestation combined could cause a decline of up to 58% in Amazon tree species richness, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36% and climate change 31–37% by 2050. Quantification is achieved by overlaying species distribution models for current and future climate change scenarios with historical and projected deforestation. Species may lose an average of 65% of their original environmentally suitable area, and a total of 53% may be threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria; however, Amazonian protected area networks reduce these impacts. The worst-case combined scenario—assuming no substantial climate or deforestation policy progress—suggests that by 2050 the Amazonian lowland rainforest may be cut into two blocks: one continuous block with 53% of the original area and another severely fragmented block. This outlook urges rapid progress to zero deforestation, which would help to mitigate climate change and foster biodiversity conservation.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-019-0500-2
DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0500-2
M3 - Article
VL - 9
SP - 547
EP - 553
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
SN - 1758-678X
IS - 7
ER -