Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits

Michalis Hadjikakou; Nicholas I. Bowles; Ozge Geyik; Sjaak J.G. Conijn; José M. Mogollón; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Adrian Muller; Isabelle Weindl; Enayat A. Moallemi; Mohammad A. Shaikh; Kerstin Damerau; Kyle F. Davis; Stephan Pfister; Marco Springmann; Michael Clark; Geneviève S. Metson; Elin Röös; Bojana Bajzelj; Neal T. Graham; Dominik Wisser; Jonathan C. Doelman; Andre Deppermann; Michaela C. Theurl; Prajal Pradhan; Miodrag Stevanović; Christian Lauk; Jinfeng Chang; Vera Heck; Ertug Ercin; Liqing Peng; Nathaniel P. Springer; Alexander F. Bouwman; Tiago G. Morais; Hugo Valin; Daniel Mason-D'Croz; Karl Heinz Erb; Alexander Popp; Mario Herrero; Patrice Dumas; Xin Zhang; Brett A. Bryan

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351

Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits

Michalis Hadjikakou^*, Nicholas I. Bowles, Ozge Geyik, Sjaak J.G. Conijn, José M. Mogollón, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Adrian Muller, Isabelle Weindl, Enayat A. Moallemi, Mohammad A. Shaikh, Kerstin Damerau, Kyle F. Davis, Stephan Pfister, Marco Springmann, Michael Clark, Geneviève S. Metson, Elin Röös, Bojana Bajzelj, Neal T. Graham, Dominik WisserJonathan C. Doelman, Andre Deppermann, Michaela C. Theurl, Prajal Pradhan, Miodrag Stevanović, Christian Lauk, Jinfeng Chang, Vera Heck, Ertug Ercin, Liqing Peng, Nathaniel P. Springer, Alexander F. Bouwman, Tiago G. Morais, Hugo Valin, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Karl Heinz Erb, Alexander Popp, Mario Herrero, Patrice Dumas, Xin Zhang, Brett A. Bryan

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Transforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding global environmental limits for agricultural area, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, surface water flows, and nutrient cycles by 2050. GHG emissions and nutrient cycles are the most difficult limits to avoid exceeding and are conditional on shifts toward diets with a low proportion of animal-source foods; steep reductions in emissions intensity; substantial improvements in nutrient management, feed-conversion ratios, and crop yields; and efforts to limit overconsumption and food waste. Ambitious actions across the global food system are needed to ensure the required level of risk mitigation.

Original language	English
Article number	101351
Pages (from-to)	1-22
Number of pages	22
Journal	One Earth
Volume	8
Issue number	9
Early online date	1 Jul 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351
Publication status	Published - 19 Sept 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

Keywords

Earth-system boundaries
environmental limits
food system intervention
meta-analysis
meta-regression
planetary boundaries
risk assessment
scenario analysis
sustainable agriculture
sustainable diet

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10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351

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Hadjikakou, M., Bowles, N. I., Geyik, O., Conijn, S. J. G., Mogollón, J. M., Bodirsky, B. L., Muller, A., Weindl, I., Moallemi, E. A., Shaikh, M. A., Damerau, K., Davis, K. F., Pfister, S., Springmann, M., Clark, M., Metson, G. S., Röös, E., Bajzelj, B., Graham, N. T., ... Bryan, B. A. (2025). Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. One Earth, 8(9), 1-22. Article 101351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351

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abstract = "Transforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth{\textquoteright}s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding global environmental limits for agricultural area, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, surface water flows, and nutrient cycles by 2050. GHG emissions and nutrient cycles are the most difficult limits to avoid exceeding and are conditional on shifts toward diets with a low proportion of animal-source foods; steep reductions in emissions intensity; substantial improvements in nutrient management, feed-conversion ratios, and crop yields; and efforts to limit overconsumption and food waste. Ambitious actions across the global food system are needed to ensure the required level of risk mitigation.",

keywords = "Earth-system boundaries, environmental limits, food system intervention, meta-analysis, meta-regression, planetary boundaries, risk assessment, scenario analysis, sustainable agriculture, sustainable diet",

author = "Michalis Hadjikakou and Bowles, \{Nicholas I.\} and Ozge Geyik and Conijn, \{Sjaak J.G.\} and Mogoll{\'o}n, \{Jos{\'e} M.\} and Bodirsky, \{Benjamin L.\} and Adrian Muller and Isabelle Weindl and Moallemi, \{Enayat A.\} and Shaikh, \{Mohammad A.\} and Kerstin Damerau and Davis, \{Kyle F.\} and Stephan Pfister and Marco Springmann and Michael Clark and Metson, \{Genevi{\`e}ve S.\} and Elin R{\"o}{\"o}s and Bojana Bajzelj and Graham, \{Neal T.\} and Dominik Wisser and Doelman, \{Jonathan C.\} and Andre Deppermann and Theurl, \{Michaela C.\} and Prajal Pradhan and Miodrag Stevanovi{\'c} and Christian Lauk and Jinfeng Chang and Vera Heck and Ertug Ercin and Liqing Peng and Springer, \{Nathaniel P.\} and Bouwman, \{Alexander F.\} and Morais, \{Tiago G.\} and Hugo Valin and Daniel Mason-D'Croz and Erb, \{Karl Heinz\} and Alexander Popp and Mario Herrero and Patrice Dumas and Xin Zhang and Bryan, \{Brett A.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.",

year = "2025",

month = sep,

day = "19",

doi = "10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351",

language = "English",

volume = "8",

pages = "1--22",

journal = "One Earth",

issn = "2590-3330",

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}

Hadjikakou, M, Bowles, NI, Geyik, O, Conijn, SJG, Mogollón, JM, Bodirsky, BL, Muller, A, Weindl, I, Moallemi, EA, Shaikh, MA, Damerau, K, Davis, KF, Pfister, S, Springmann, M, Clark, M, Metson, GS, Röös, E, Bajzelj, B, Graham, NT, Wisser, D, Doelman, JC, Deppermann, A, Theurl, MC, Pradhan, P, Stevanović, M, Lauk, C, Chang, J, Heck, V, Ercin, E, Peng, L, Springer, NP, Bouwman, AF, Morais, TG, Valin, H, Mason-D'Croz, D, Erb, KH, Popp, A, Herrero, M, Dumas, P, Zhang, X & Bryan, BA 2025, 'Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits', One Earth, vol. 8, no. 9, 101351, pp. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits

AU - Hadjikakou, Michalis

AU - Bowles, Nicholas I.

AU - Geyik, Ozge

AU - Conijn, Sjaak J.G.

AU - Mogollón, José M.

AU - Bodirsky, Benjamin L.

AU - Muller, Adrian

AU - Weindl, Isabelle

AU - Moallemi, Enayat A.

AU - Shaikh, Mohammad A.

AU - Damerau, Kerstin

AU - Davis, Kyle F.

AU - Pfister, Stephan

AU - Springmann, Marco

AU - Clark, Michael

AU - Metson, Geneviève S.

AU - Röös, Elin

AU - Bajzelj, Bojana

AU - Graham, Neal T.

AU - Wisser, Dominik

AU - Doelman, Jonathan C.

AU - Deppermann, Andre

AU - Theurl, Michaela C.

AU - Pradhan, Prajal

AU - Stevanović, Miodrag

AU - Lauk, Christian

AU - Chang, Jinfeng

AU - Heck, Vera

AU - Ercin, Ertug

AU - Peng, Liqing

AU - Springer, Nathaniel P.

AU - Bouwman, Alexander F.

AU - Morais, Tiago G.

AU - Valin, Hugo

AU - Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

AU - Erb, Karl Heinz

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - Herrero, Mario

AU - Dumas, Patrice

AU - Zhang, Xin

AU - Bryan, Brett A.

PY - 2025/9/19

Y1 - 2025/9/19

N2 - Transforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding global environmental limits for agricultural area, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, surface water flows, and nutrient cycles by 2050. GHG emissions and nutrient cycles are the most difficult limits to avoid exceeding and are conditional on shifts toward diets with a low proportion of animal-source foods; steep reductions in emissions intensity; substantial improvements in nutrient management, feed-conversion ratios, and crop yields; and efforts to limit overconsumption and food waste. Ambitious actions across the global food system are needed to ensure the required level of risk mitigation.

AB - Transforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding global environmental limits for agricultural area, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, surface water flows, and nutrient cycles by 2050. GHG emissions and nutrient cycles are the most difficult limits to avoid exceeding and are conditional on shifts toward diets with a low proportion of animal-source foods; steep reductions in emissions intensity; substantial improvements in nutrient management, feed-conversion ratios, and crop yields; and efforts to limit overconsumption and food waste. Ambitious actions across the global food system are needed to ensure the required level of risk mitigation.

KW - Earth-system boundaries

KW - environmental limits

KW - food system intervention

KW - meta-analysis

KW - meta-regression

KW - planetary boundaries

KW - risk assessment

KW - scenario analysis

KW - sustainable agriculture

KW - sustainable diet

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105009650710

UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=105009650710&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351

DO - 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105009650710

SN - 2590-3330

VL - 8

SP - 1

EP - 22

JO - One Earth

JF - One Earth

IS - 9

M1 - 101351

ER -

Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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