Abstract
Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing for flexibility of adaptation strategies over time. Our method is illustrated for Los Angeles County which is vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. Results for different sea level rise scenarios show that applying adaptation pathways can result in higher economic efficiency (up to 10%)than individual adaptation strategies, despite the loss of efficiency at the initial strategy. However, we identified ‘investment tipping points’, after which a transition could decrease the economic efficiencies of a pathway significantly. Overall, we recommend that studies evaluating adaptation strategies should integrate cost–benefit analysis frameworks with adaptation pathways since this allows for better informing decision makers about the robustness and economic desirability of their investment choices.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 647-659 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Science of the Total Environment |
| Volume | 678 |
| Early online date | 24 Apr 2019 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Aug 2019 |
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Keywords
- Adaptation pathways
- Climate change
- Cost-benefit analysis
- Flood risk analysis
- Sea level rise
- Uncertainty
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An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities : An illustration for Los Angeles. / de Ruig, Lars T.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Botzen, W. J.Wouter; Grifman, Phyllis; Hart, Juliette Finzi; de Moel, Hans; Sadrpour, Nick; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.
In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 678, 15.08.2019, p. 647-659.Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities
T2 - An illustration for Los Angeles
AU - de Ruig, Lars T.
AU - Barnard, Patrick L.
AU - Botzen, W. J.Wouter
AU - Grifman, Phyllis
AU - Hart, Juliette Finzi
AU - de Moel, Hans
AU - Sadrpour, Nick
AU - Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.
PY - 2019/8/15
Y1 - 2019/8/15
N2 - Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing for flexibility of adaptation strategies over time. Our method is illustrated for Los Angeles County which is vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. Results for different sea level rise scenarios show that applying adaptation pathways can result in higher economic efficiency (up to 10%)than individual adaptation strategies, despite the loss of efficiency at the initial strategy. However, we identified ‘investment tipping points’, after which a transition could decrease the economic efficiencies of a pathway significantly. Overall, we recommend that studies evaluating adaptation strategies should integrate cost–benefit analysis frameworks with adaptation pathways since this allows for better informing decision makers about the robustness and economic desirability of their investment choices.
AB - Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing for flexibility of adaptation strategies over time. Our method is illustrated for Los Angeles County which is vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. Results for different sea level rise scenarios show that applying adaptation pathways can result in higher economic efficiency (up to 10%)than individual adaptation strategies, despite the loss of efficiency at the initial strategy. However, we identified ‘investment tipping points’, after which a transition could decrease the economic efficiencies of a pathway significantly. Overall, we recommend that studies evaluating adaptation strategies should integrate cost–benefit analysis frameworks with adaptation pathways since this allows for better informing decision makers about the robustness and economic desirability of their investment choices.
KW - Adaptation pathways
KW - Climate change
KW - Cost-benefit analysis
KW - Flood risk analysis
KW - Sea level rise
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85065248538&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85065248538&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.308
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.308
M3 - Article
VL - 678
SP - 647
EP - 659
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
SN - 0048-9697
ER -