Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

P.J. Ward, B. Jongman, F. Sperna Weiland, A. Bouwman, R. Van Beek, M.F.P. Bierkens, W. Ligtvoet, H.C. Winsemius

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    Abstract

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number044019
    JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
    Volume8
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013

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