Abstract
Forecast-based actions are increasingly receiving attention in flood risk management. However, uncertainties and constraints in forecast skill highlight the need to carefully assess the costs and benefits of the actions in relation to the limitations of forecast information. Forecast skill decreases with increasing lead time, and therefore, an inherent trade-off between timeliness and accuracy exists. In our paper, we present a methodology to assess the potential added value of early warning early action systems (EWEAS), and we explore the decision-makers’ dilemma between acting upon limited-quality forecast information and taking less effective actions. The assessment is carried out for one- and a two-stage action systems, in which a first action that is based on a lower skill and longer lead time forecast may be followed up by a second action that is based on a short-term, higher-confidence forecast. Through an idealized case study, we demonstrate that a) that the optimal lead time to trigger action is a function of forecast quality, the local geographic conditions and the operational characteristics of the forecast-based actions and b) low-certainty, long lead time forecasts can become valuable when paired with short-term, higher quality ones in a two-stage action approach.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 101252 |
| Pages (from-to) | 1-13 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction |
| Volume | 40 |
| Early online date | 27 Jul 2019 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Nov 2019 |
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Keywords
- Decision-making
- Early warning early action system
- Flood risk
- Forecast-based financing
- Relative economic value
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Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods. / Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; van den Hurk, Bart; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Veldkamp, Ted; Nobre, Gabriela Guimarães; Aerts, Jeroen.
In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 40, 101252, 01.11.2019, p. 1-13.Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods
AU - Bischiniotis, Konstantinos
AU - van den Hurk, Bart
AU - Coughlan de Perez, Erin
AU - Veldkamp, Ted
AU - Nobre, Gabriela Guimarães
AU - Aerts, Jeroen
PY - 2019/11/1
Y1 - 2019/11/1
N2 - Forecast-based actions are increasingly receiving attention in flood risk management. However, uncertainties and constraints in forecast skill highlight the need to carefully assess the costs and benefits of the actions in relation to the limitations of forecast information. Forecast skill decreases with increasing lead time, and therefore, an inherent trade-off between timeliness and accuracy exists. In our paper, we present a methodology to assess the potential added value of early warning early action systems (EWEAS), and we explore the decision-makers’ dilemma between acting upon limited-quality forecast information and taking less effective actions. The assessment is carried out for one- and a two-stage action systems, in which a first action that is based on a lower skill and longer lead time forecast may be followed up by a second action that is based on a short-term, higher-confidence forecast. Through an idealized case study, we demonstrate that a) that the optimal lead time to trigger action is a function of forecast quality, the local geographic conditions and the operational characteristics of the forecast-based actions and b) low-certainty, long lead time forecasts can become valuable when paired with short-term, higher quality ones in a two-stage action approach.
AB - Forecast-based actions are increasingly receiving attention in flood risk management. However, uncertainties and constraints in forecast skill highlight the need to carefully assess the costs and benefits of the actions in relation to the limitations of forecast information. Forecast skill decreases with increasing lead time, and therefore, an inherent trade-off between timeliness and accuracy exists. In our paper, we present a methodology to assess the potential added value of early warning early action systems (EWEAS), and we explore the decision-makers’ dilemma between acting upon limited-quality forecast information and taking less effective actions. The assessment is carried out for one- and a two-stage action systems, in which a first action that is based on a lower skill and longer lead time forecast may be followed up by a second action that is based on a short-term, higher-confidence forecast. Through an idealized case study, we demonstrate that a) that the optimal lead time to trigger action is a function of forecast quality, the local geographic conditions and the operational characteristics of the forecast-based actions and b) low-certainty, long lead time forecasts can become valuable when paired with short-term, higher quality ones in a two-stage action approach.
KW - Decision-making
KW - Early warning early action system
KW - Flood risk
KW - Forecast-based financing
KW - Relative economic value
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85070072112&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252
DO - 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252
M3 - Article
VL - 40
SP - 1
EP - 13
JO - International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
JF - International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
SN - 2212-4209
M1 - 101252
ER -