Abstract
Socio-hydrological flood risk models describe the temporal co-evolution of coupled human–flood systems. However, most models oversimplify the flood loss processes and do not consider companies’ substantial contribution to total losses. This work presents a socio-hydrological flood risk model for companies that focuses on changes in vulnerability. In addition, we augment the socio-hydrological model with a process-oriented, sector-specific loss model in order to capture damage processes more realistically. In a case study, we simulate the historical flood risk dynamics of companies in the floodplain of Dresden, Germany, over the course of 120 years. Our analysis suggests that the companies in Dresden increase their exposure more cautiously than private households and decrease their vulnerability more actively through private precaution. The augmentation, consisting of informative predictors, a refined probabilistic model, and the incorporation of additional data, improves the accuracy and reliability of the flood loss estimates and reduces their uncertainty.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1623-1639 |
| Number of pages | 17 |
| Journal | Hydrological Sciences Journal |
| Volume | 67 |
| Issue number | 11 |
| Early online date | 5 Aug 2022 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:This work was conducted within the framework of the Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange) [grant number GRK 2043] funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft). We thank Gotthard Meinel from the Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER) for providing us with the historical land-use maps of Dresden. The discharge data can be downloaded from the Global Runoff Data Centre (https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/). The flood loss survey data for companies are distributed via the German flood damage database HOWAS21 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1594/GFZ.SDDB.HOWAS21). The inundation maps for Dresden are publically available at the Saxonian Environmental Agency (https://www.wasser.sachsen.de/hochwassergefahrenkarte-11915.html). Economic data (gross domestic product and asset values) are contained in the HANZE dataset (https://doi.org/10.4121/collection:HANZE). Data on flood losses in Dresden were collected by the Saxonian Relief Bank in the aftermath of flood events and were shared with the authors upon request.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Keywords
- adaptation
- Bayesian model
- commercial sector
- flood damage
- socio-hydrology
- vulnerability
