Batka's Beatdown: The Repression of the Belarusian Democracy Movement

After the contested presidential in August 2020, Belarusians took to the streets en masse. Although Belarus has a long history of resistance, the size of the 2020 protests was unprecedented, with some sources estimating the participation of 350.000 Belarussians. By December 2020, over 27.000 protesters had been arrested, with regular reports of torture in detention, and others had been forced in exile. The Lukashenko regime was able to effectively repress the nonviolent resistance movement. Based on a multilevel framework on nonviolent resistance, we seek to explain why nonviolent resistance has not been able to succeed in Belarus. Through a series of interviews with experts and Belarussian nonviolent resisters, it is argued that the Russian-backed repression, alongside pre-existing societal cleavages and elite support for the regime, contributed in limiting the potential of the nonviolent resistance movement and to guaranteeing the continuing rule of Lukashenko. The recent context of the war in Ukraine has furthermore increased the presence of Russia within Belarus, moving the country further away from Western democracies and towards Russian authoritarianism.