Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora

Hans ter Steege*, Paulo I. Prado, Renato A.F.de Lima, Edwin Pos, Luiz de Souza Coelho, Diogenes de Andrade Lima Filho, Rafael P. Salomão, Iêda Leão Amaral, Francisca Dionízia de Almeida Matos, Carolina V. Castilho, Oliver L. Phillips, Juan Ernesto Guevara, Marcelo de Jesus Veiga Carim, Dairon Cárdenas López, William E. Magnusson, Florian Wittmann, Maria Pires Martins, Daniel Sabatier, Mariana Victória Irume, José Renan da Silva GuimarãesJean François Molino, Olaf S. Bánki, Maria Teresa Fernandez Piedade, Nigel C.A. Pitman, José Ferreira Ramos, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Eduardo Martins Venticinque, Bruno Garcia Luize, Percy Núñez Vargas, Thiago Sanna Freire Silva, Evlyn Márcia Moraes de Leão Novo, Neidiane Farias Costa Reis, John Terborgh, Angelo Gilberto Manzatto, Katia Regina Casula, Euridice N. Honorio Coronado, Juan Carlos Montero, Alvaro Duque, Flávia R.C. Costa, Nicolás Castaño Arboleda, Jochen Schöngart, Charles Eugene Zartman, Timothy J. Killeen, Beatriz S. Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Rodolfo Vasquez, Bonifacio Mostacedo, Layon O. Demarchi, Ted R. Feldpausch, Julien Engel, Pascal Petronelli, Chris Baraloto, Rafael L. Assis, Hernán Castellanos, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Adriano Quaresma, Susan G.W. Laurance, Lorena M. Rincón, Ana Andrade, Thaiane R. Sousa, José Luís Camargo, Juliana Schietti, William F. Laurance, Helder Lima de Queiroz, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça Nascimento, Maria Aparecida Lopes, Emanuelle de Sousa Farias, José Leonardo Lima Magalhães, Roel Brienen, Gerardo A. Aymard C, Juan David Cardenas Revilla, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat Cintra, Pablo R. Stevenson, Yuri Oliveira Feitosa, Joost F. Duivenvoorden, Hugo F. Mogollón, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Leandro Valle Ferreira, José Rafael Lozada, James A. Comiskey, José Julio de Toledo, Gabriel Damasco, Nállarett Dávila, Aline Lopes, Roosevelt García-Villacorta, Freddie Draper, Alberto Vicentini, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Jon Lloyd, Vitor H.F. Gomes, David Neill, Alfonso Alonso, Francisco Dallmeier, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, Rogerio Gribel, Luzmila Arroyo, Fernanda Antunes Carvalho, Daniel Praia Portela de Aguiar, Dário Dantas do Amaral, Marcelo Petratti Pansonato, Kenneth J. Feeley, Erika Berenguer, Paul V.A. Fine, Marcelino Carneiro Guedes, Jos Barlow, Joice Ferreira, Boris Villa, Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora, Eliana M. Jimenez, Juan Carlos Licona, Carlos Cerón, Raquel Thomas, Paul Maas, Marcos Silveira, Terry W. Henkel, Juliana Stropp, Marcos Ríos Paredes, Kyle G. Dexter, Doug Daly, Tim R. Baker, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, William Milliken, Toby Pennington, J. Sebastián Tello, José Luis Marcelo Pena, Carlos A. Peres, Bente Klitgaard, Alfredo Fuentes, Miles R. Silman, Anthony Di Fiore, Patricio von Hildebrand, Jerome Chave, Tinde R. van Andel, Renato Richard Hilário, Juan Fernando Phillips, Gonzalo Rivas-Torres, Janaína Costa Noronha, Adriana Prieto, Therany Gonzales, Rainiellene de Sá Carpanedo, George Pepe Gallardo Gonzales, Ricardo Zárate Gómez, Domingos de Jesus Rodrigues, Egleé L. Zent, Ademir R. Ruschel, Vincent Antoine Vos, Émile Fonty, André Braga Junqueira, Hilda Paulette Dávila Doza, Bruce Hoffman, Stanford Zent, Edelcilio Marques Barbosa, Yadvinder Malhi, Luiz Carlos de Matos Bonates, Ires Paula de Andrade Miranda, Natalino Silva, Flávia Rodrigues Barbosa, César I.A. Vela, Linder Felipe Mozombite Pinto, Agustín Rudas, Bianca Weiss Albuquerque, Maria Natalia Umaña, Yrma Andreina Carrero Márquez, Geertje van der Heijden, Kenneth R. Young, Milton Tirado, Diego F. Correa, Rodrigo Sierra, Janaina Barbosa Pedrosa Costa, Maira Rocha, Emilio Vilanova Torre, Ophelia Wang, Alexandre A. Oliveira, Michelle Kalamandeen, Corine Vriesendorp, Hirma Ramirez-Angulo, Milena Holmgren, Marcelo Trindade Nascimento, David Galbraith, Bernardo Monteiro Flores, Veridiana Vizoni Scudeller, Angela Cano, Manuel Augusto Ahuite Reategui, Italo Mesones, Cláudia Baider, Casimiro Mendoza, Roderick Zagt, Ligia Estela Urrego Giraldo, Cid Ferreira, Daniel Villarroel, Reynaldo Linares-Palomino, William Farfan-Rios, William Farfan-Rios, Luisa Fernanda Casas, Sasha Cárdenas, Henrik Balslev, Armando Torres-Lezama, Miguel N. Alexiades, Karina Garcia-Cabrera, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Elvis H. Valderrama Sandoval, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Lionel Hernandez, Adeilza Felipe Sampaio, Susamar Pansini, Walter Palacios Cuenca, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Daniela Pauletto, Aurora Levesley, Karina Melgaço, Georgia Pickavance

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

Original languageEnglish
Article number10130
Pages (from-to)1-13
Number of pages13
JournalScientific Reports
Volume10
Issue number1
Early online date23 Jun 2020
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 23 Jun 2020

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