# Bootstraps for Meta-Analysis with an Application to the Impact of Climate Change

### Abstract

Bootstrap and smoothed bootstrap methods are used to estimate the uncertainty about the total impact of climate change, and to assess the performance of commonly used impact functions. Kernel regression is extended to include restrictions on the functional form. Impact functions do not describe the primary estimates of the economic impacts very well, and monotonic functions do particularly badly. The impacts of climate change do not significantly deviate from zero until 2.5–3.5 $$^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$C warming. The uncertainty is large, and so is the risk premium. The ambiguity premium is small, however. The certainty equivalent impact is a negative 1.5 % of income for $$2.5\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$2.5C, rising to 15 % (50 %) for $$5.0\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$5.0C for a rate of risk aversion of 1 (2).
Original language English 287-303 Computational Economics 46 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-014-9448-5 Published - 2015

Climate change
Economics
Bootstrap
Meta-analysis
Uncertainty

### Bibliographical note

PT: J; NR: 42; TC: 0; J9: COMPUT ECON; PG: 17; GA: CQ9CS; UT: WOS:000360909100007

### Cite this

@article{d571c51827d740a08da84e07f4d7b630,
title = "Bootstraps for Meta-Analysis with an Application to the Impact of Climate Change",
abstract = "Bootstrap and smoothed bootstrap methods are used to estimate the uncertainty about the total impact of climate change, and to assess the performance of commonly used impact functions. Kernel regression is extended to include restrictions on the functional form. Impact functions do not describe the primary estimates of the economic impacts very well, and monotonic functions do particularly badly. The impacts of climate change do not significantly deviate from zero until 2.5–3.5 $$^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$∘C warming. The uncertainty is large, and so is the risk premium. The ambiguity premium is small, however. The certainty equivalent impact is a negative 1.5 {\%} of income for $$2.5\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$2.5∘C, rising to 15 {\%} (50 {\%}) for $$5.0\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$5.0∘C for a rate of risk aversion of 1 (2).",
author = "R.S.J. Tol",
note = "PT: J; NR: 42; TC: 0; J9: COMPUT ECON; PG: 17; GA: CQ9CS; UT: WOS:000360909100007",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.1007/s10614-014-9448-5",
language = "English",
volume = "46",
pages = "287--303",
journal = "Computational Economics",
issn = "0927-7099",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "2",

}

In: Computational Economics, Vol. 46, No. 2, 2015, p. 287-303.

TY - JOUR

T1 - Bootstraps for Meta-Analysis with an Application to the Impact of Climate Change

AU - Tol, R.S.J.

N1 - PT: J; NR: 42; TC: 0; J9: COMPUT ECON; PG: 17; GA: CQ9CS; UT: WOS:000360909100007

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Bootstrap and smoothed bootstrap methods are used to estimate the uncertainty about the total impact of climate change, and to assess the performance of commonly used impact functions. Kernel regression is extended to include restrictions on the functional form. Impact functions do not describe the primary estimates of the economic impacts very well, and monotonic functions do particularly badly. The impacts of climate change do not significantly deviate from zero until 2.5–3.5 $$^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$∘C warming. The uncertainty is large, and so is the risk premium. The ambiguity premium is small, however. The certainty equivalent impact is a negative 1.5 % of income for $$2.5\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$2.5∘C, rising to 15 % (50 %) for $$5.0\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$5.0∘C for a rate of risk aversion of 1 (2).

AB - Bootstrap and smoothed bootstrap methods are used to estimate the uncertainty about the total impact of climate change, and to assess the performance of commonly used impact functions. Kernel regression is extended to include restrictions on the functional form. Impact functions do not describe the primary estimates of the economic impacts very well, and monotonic functions do particularly badly. The impacts of climate change do not significantly deviate from zero until 2.5–3.5 $$^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$∘C warming. The uncertainty is large, and so is the risk premium. The ambiguity premium is small, however. The certainty equivalent impact is a negative 1.5 % of income for $$2.5\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$2.5∘C, rising to 15 % (50 %) for $$5.0\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$5.0∘C for a rate of risk aversion of 1 (2).

U2 - 10.1007/s10614-014-9448-5

DO - 10.1007/s10614-014-9448-5

M3 - Article

VL - 46

SP - 287

EP - 303

JO - Computational Economics

JF - Computational Economics

SN - 0927-7099

IS - 2

ER -