Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach

Sam van Buuren; Jan Treur; Peter Roelofsma

doi:10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1_22

Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach

Sam van Buuren^*, Jan Treur, Peter Roelofsma

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We use adaptive network modelling to perform risk analysis for cascade cyber incidents. By randomising characteristics of the incidents and Monte Carlo simulation based on it we explore how we can perform risk analyses. As a use case, we model the 2022 KA-SAT satellite hack and analyse five scenarios from three ENISA recommendations intended to mitigate similar incidents. This method proves well-suited to this type of analysis, especially on cascade scenarios with a tangible chain of effect.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Navigating the Digital Frontier
Subtitle of host publication	Harnessing Emerging Technologies for Business Success - Proceedings of ICBT 2025
Editors	Alareeni Bahaaeddin, Allam Hamdan
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	237-246
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Print)	9783032002495
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1_22
Publication status	Published - 2026
Event	International Conference on Business and Technology, ICBT 2025 - Edinburgh, United Kingdom Duration: 12 Apr 2025 → 13 Apr 2025

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Volume	1821 LNNS
ISSN (Print)	2367-3370
ISSN (Electronic)	2367-3389

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Business and Technology, ICBT 2025
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Edinburgh
Period	12/04/25 → 13/04/25

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.

Keywords

Cybersecurity
Monte Carlo simulation
Risk assessment

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1_22

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Cite this

van Buuren, S., Treur, J., & Roelofsma, P. (2026). Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach. In A. Bahaaeddin, & A. Hamdan (Eds.), Navigating the Digital Frontier: Harnessing Emerging Technologies for Business Success - Proceedings of ICBT 2025 (pp. 237-246). (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 1821 LNNS). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1_22

van Buuren, Sam ; Treur, Jan ; Roelofsma, Peter. / Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks : a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach. Navigating the Digital Frontier: Harnessing Emerging Technologies for Business Success - Proceedings of ICBT 2025. editor / Alareeni Bahaaeddin ; Allam Hamdan. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026. pp. 237-246 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems).

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abstract = "We use adaptive network modelling to perform risk analysis for cascade cyber incidents. By randomising characteristics of the incidents and Monte Carlo simulation based on it we explore how we can perform risk analyses. As a use case, we model the 2022 KA-SAT satellite hack and analyse five scenarios from three ENISA recommendations intended to mitigate similar incidents. This method proves well-suited to this type of analysis, especially on cascade scenarios with a tangible chain of effect.",

keywords = "Cybersecurity, Monte Carlo simulation, Risk assessment",

author = "\{van Buuren\}, Sam and Jan Treur and Peter Roelofsma",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.; International Conference on Business and Technology, ICBT 2025 ; Conference date: 12-04-2025 Through 13-04-2025",

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doi = "10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1\_22",

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van Buuren, S, Treur, J & Roelofsma, P 2026, Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach. in A Bahaaeddin & A Hamdan (eds), Navigating the Digital Frontier: Harnessing Emerging Technologies for Business Success - Proceedings of ICBT 2025. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 1821 LNNS, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 237-246, International Conference on Business and Technology, ICBT 2025, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, 12/04/25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1_22

Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach. / van Buuren, Sam; Treur, Jan; Roelofsma, Peter.
Navigating the Digital Frontier: Harnessing Emerging Technologies for Business Success - Proceedings of ICBT 2025. ed. / Alareeni Bahaaeddin; Allam Hamdan. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026. p. 237-246 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 1821 LNNS).

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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T1 - Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks

T2 - International Conference on Business and Technology, ICBT 2025

AU - van Buuren, Sam

AU - Treur, Jan

AU - Roelofsma, Peter

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - We use adaptive network modelling to perform risk analysis for cascade cyber incidents. By randomising characteristics of the incidents and Monte Carlo simulation based on it we explore how we can perform risk analyses. As a use case, we model the 2022 KA-SAT satellite hack and analyse five scenarios from three ENISA recommendations intended to mitigate similar incidents. This method proves well-suited to this type of analysis, especially on cascade scenarios with a tangible chain of effect.

AB - We use adaptive network modelling to perform risk analysis for cascade cyber incidents. By randomising characteristics of the incidents and Monte Carlo simulation based on it we explore how we can perform risk analyses. As a use case, we model the 2022 KA-SAT satellite hack and analyse five scenarios from three ENISA recommendations intended to mitigate similar incidents. This method proves well-suited to this type of analysis, especially on cascade scenarios with a tangible chain of effect.

KW - Cybersecurity

KW - Monte Carlo simulation

KW - Risk assessment

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DO - 10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1_22

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SN - 9783032002495

T3 - Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems

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EP - 246

BT - Navigating the Digital Frontier

A2 - Bahaaeddin, Alareeni

A2 - Hamdan, Allam

PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH

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van Buuren S, Treur J, Roelofsma P. Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach. In Bahaaeddin A, Hamdan A, editors, Navigating the Digital Frontier: Harnessing Emerging Technologies for Business Success - Proceedings of ICBT 2025. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2026. p. 237-246. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems). doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-00250-1_22

Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach

Abstract

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