Challenges and solutions in prognostic prediction models in spinal disorders

Methodological shortcomings in prognostic modeling for patients with spinal disorders are highly common. This general commentary discusses methodological challenges related to the specific nature of this field. Five specific methodological challenges in prognostic modeling for patients with spinal disorders are presented with their potential solutions, as related to the choice of study participants, purpose of studies, limitations in measurements of outcomes and predictors, complexity of recovery predictions, and confusion of prognosis and treatment response. Large studies specifically designed for prognostic model research are needed, using standard baseline measurement sets, clearly describing participants’ recruitment and accounting and correcting for measurement limitations.