Changing realities for smallholders in Southeast Asia: Well-being outcomes and climate change consequences

Rural livelihoods in Southeast Asia are embedded in diverse agricultural landscapes, ranging from systems with shifting cultivation of upland rice to lowland systems with paddy rice, cash crops, and large-scale plantations. These agricultural livelihoods face increasing pressures from shifts in governance, global trade, and climate change, resulting in a range of agrarian change processes, including de-agrarianization of household production, changes in land ownership and rights, market-based intensification, and transformations in crop and agricultural systems. With the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Sustainable Development Goals), attention has turned to how agrarian and climatic changes affect multiple dimensions of human well-being and environmental sustainability, producing trade-offs and synergies between different goals.

This thesis explores these dynamics through a systematic review of 126 cases of agricultural land use change across Southeast Asia, revealing that outcomes are often positive for income and employment, while impacts on food security, gender equality, and equity are more frequently negative. Expansion of large-scale land acquisitions for plantation crops in particular negatively affects multiple dimensions of well-being. In contrast, smallholder-led intensification produces more varied results, sometimes yielding synergistic outcomes between income, food security, and employment.

A household survey of 360 smallholder households in 12 villages in Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR, further shows that intensive rice smallholders often experience reinforcing gains across food security, health, and income, while cash crop smallholders are more vulnerable to negative cycles of declining well-being. In addition, the survey highlights that off-farm employment and remittances are associated with higher economic well-being, whereas reliance on industrial cash crops such as cassava and banana can undermine both income and food security.

Climate change impacts on local crop systems are examined through crop suitability modeling, based on projected changes in precipitation and temperature. Regional projections for coconut, oil palm, and rubber show uneven shifts, with oil palm facing major declines in suitable areas. Village-level modeling in Lao PDR indicates that lowland rice systems are highly vulnerable to rising heat stress, while upland cash crop systems may benefit from warming conditions.

Taken together, the findings demonstrate how agrarian and climate change reshape smallholder livelihoods in uneven ways, creating both risks and opportunities. The thesis emphasizes the need for policies that strengthen resilience, equity, and adaptive capacity, thereby supporting inclusive rural development.