Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

R.S.J. Tol, S. Wagner

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We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)65-79
JournalClimatic Change
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2010


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