Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Alvaro Calzadilla, Katrin Rehdanz, Richard Betts, Pete Falloon, Andy Wiltshire, Richard S J Tol

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)357-374
Number of pages18
JournalClimatic Change
Volume120
Issue number1-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2013

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agriculture
climate change
international trade
food production
Gross Domestic Product
river flow
competitiveness
regional climate
soil moisture
water
productivity
food
climate
temperature
analysis
loss
distribution
price
land

Cite this

Calzadilla, A., Rehdanz, K., Betts, R., Falloon, P., Wiltshire, A., & Tol, R. S. J. (2013). Climate change impacts on global agriculture. Climatic Change, 120(1-2), 357-374. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0822-4
Calzadilla, Alvaro ; Rehdanz, Katrin ; Betts, Richard ; Falloon, Pete ; Wiltshire, Andy ; Tol, Richard S J. / Climate change impacts on global agriculture. In: Climatic Change. 2013 ; Vol. 120, No. 1-2. pp. 357-374.
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Calzadilla, A, Rehdanz, K, Betts, R, Falloon, P, Wiltshire, A & Tol, RSJ 2013, 'Climate change impacts on global agriculture' Climatic Change, vol. 120, no. 1-2, pp. 357-374. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0822-4

Climate change impacts on global agriculture. / Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Betts, Richard; Falloon, Pete; Wiltshire, Andy; Tol, Richard S J.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 120, No. 1-2, 09.2013, p. 357-374.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Calzadilla A, Rehdanz K, Betts R, Falloon P, Wiltshire A, Tol RSJ. Climate change impacts on global agriculture. Climatic Change. 2013 Sep;120(1-2):357-374. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0822-4