Climate Change, the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect and Influence of the Sun: A Statistical Analysis

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Changes in solar activity are regularly forwarded as an hypothesis to explain the observed global warming over the last century. The support of such claims is largely statistical, as knowledge of the physical relationships is limited. The statistical evidence is revisited. Changing solar activity is a statistically plausible hypothesis for the observed warming, if short-term natural variability is the only alternative explanation. Compared to the enhanced greenhouse effect, the solar hypothesis looses a substantial part of its plausibility. Reversely, the size and significance of the estimated impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the global mean temperature is hardly affected by solar activity.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-8
Number of pages7
JournalTheoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume61
Issue number1-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1998

Fingerprint

greenhouse effect
solar activity
statistical analysis
climate change
global warming
warming
temperature

Cite this

@article{94a7b9752c73495aba16c2ba43982b49,
title = "Climate Change, the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect and Influence of the Sun: A Statistical Analysis",
abstract = "Changes in solar activity are regularly forwarded as an hypothesis to explain the observed global warming over the last century. The support of such claims is largely statistical, as knowledge of the physical relationships is limited. The statistical evidence is revisited. Changing solar activity is a statistically plausible hypothesis for the observed warming, if short-term natural variability is the only alternative explanation. Compared to the enhanced greenhouse effect, the solar hypothesis looses a substantial part of its plausibility. Reversely, the size and significance of the estimated impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the global mean temperature is hardly affected by solar activity.",
author = "R.S.J. Tol and P. Vellinga",
year = "1998",
doi = "10.1007/s007040050046",
language = "English",
volume = "61",
pages = "1--8",
journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
issn = "0177-798X",
publisher = "Springer Wien",
number = "1-2",

}

Climate Change, the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect and Influence of the Sun: A Statistical Analysis. / Tol, R.S.J.; Vellinga, P.

In: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 61, No. 1-2, 1998, p. 1-8.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate Change, the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect and Influence of the Sun: A Statistical Analysis

AU - Tol, R.S.J.

AU - Vellinga, P.

PY - 1998

Y1 - 1998

N2 - Changes in solar activity are regularly forwarded as an hypothesis to explain the observed global warming over the last century. The support of such claims is largely statistical, as knowledge of the physical relationships is limited. The statistical evidence is revisited. Changing solar activity is a statistically plausible hypothesis for the observed warming, if short-term natural variability is the only alternative explanation. Compared to the enhanced greenhouse effect, the solar hypothesis looses a substantial part of its plausibility. Reversely, the size and significance of the estimated impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the global mean temperature is hardly affected by solar activity.

AB - Changes in solar activity are regularly forwarded as an hypothesis to explain the observed global warming over the last century. The support of such claims is largely statistical, as knowledge of the physical relationships is limited. The statistical evidence is revisited. Changing solar activity is a statistically plausible hypothesis for the observed warming, if short-term natural variability is the only alternative explanation. Compared to the enhanced greenhouse effect, the solar hypothesis looses a substantial part of its plausibility. Reversely, the size and significance of the estimated impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the global mean temperature is hardly affected by solar activity.

U2 - 10.1007/s007040050046

DO - 10.1007/s007040050046

M3 - Article

VL - 61

SP - 1

EP - 8

JO - Theoretical and Applied Climatology

JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology

SN - 0177-798X

IS - 1-2

ER -