CLIMRISK-RIVER: Accounting for local river flood risk in estimating the economic cost of climate change

Predrag Ignjacevic; W. J.Wouter Botzen; Francisco Estrada; Onno Kuik; Philip Ward; Timothy Tiggeloven

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104784

CLIMRISK-RIVER: Accounting for local river flood risk in estimating the economic cost of climate change

Predrag Ignjacevic^*, W. J.Wouter Botzen, Francisco Estrada, Onno Kuik, Philip Ward, Timothy Tiggeloven

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

This study aims to improve the estimates of the economic impacts of climate change by developing a river flood risk model CLIMRISK-RIVER and introducing it into an existing climate-economy integrated assessment model (IAM). It operates on a local scale and can project climate change-related river flood damage for various socioeconomic, climate and flood adaptation scenarios. Whereas other IAMs have relied on temperature as a climate change proxy, we show that precipitation is a key variable in projecting river flood damage. The way adaptation is accounted for in our flood damage functions has a large influence on the results, highlighting the relevance of modelling local level adaptation in IAMs. Results presented at different spatial scales demonstrate the relevance of river flood damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change and allows for exploration of the spatial distribution of impacts through local estimates.

Original language	English
Article number	104784
Pages (from-to)	1-28
Number of pages	28
Journal	Environmental Modelling & Software
Volume	132
Early online date	8 Aug 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104784
Publication status	Published - Oct 2020

Funding

This research has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 776479. Philip J. Ward received additional funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through VIDI grant 016.161.324. The authors also acknowledge the financial support received from the United Nations Development Programme (M?xico), the National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (grant IC-2017-068) as part of Mexico's Sixth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Funders	Funder number
Mexico's Sixth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Mexico’s Sixth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change	IC-2017-068
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
United Nations Development Programme
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	016.161.324
Horizon 2020	776479

Keywords

Climate change
Integrated assessment modelling
River flood adaptation
River flood risk

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104784

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Cite this

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title = "CLIMRISK-RIVER: Accounting for local river flood risk in estimating the economic cost of climate change",

abstract = "This study aims to improve the estimates of the economic impacts of climate change by developing a river flood risk model CLIMRISK-RIVER and introducing it into an existing climate-economy integrated assessment model (IAM). It operates on a local scale and can project climate change-related river flood damage for various socioeconomic, climate and flood adaptation scenarios. Whereas other IAMs have relied on temperature as a climate change proxy, we show that precipitation is a key variable in projecting river flood damage. The way adaptation is accounted for in our flood damage functions has a large influence on the results, highlighting the relevance of modelling local level adaptation in IAMs. Results presented at different spatial scales demonstrate the relevance of river flood damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change and allows for exploration of the spatial distribution of impacts through local estimates.",

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author = "Predrag Ignjacevic and Botzen, {W. J.Wouter} and Francisco Estrada and Onno Kuik and Philip Ward and Timothy Tiggeloven",

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AU - Botzen, W. J.Wouter

AU - Estrada, Francisco

AU - Kuik, Onno

AU - Ward, Philip

AU - Tiggeloven, Timothy

PY - 2020/10

Y1 - 2020/10

N2 - This study aims to improve the estimates of the economic impacts of climate change by developing a river flood risk model CLIMRISK-RIVER and introducing it into an existing climate-economy integrated assessment model (IAM). It operates on a local scale and can project climate change-related river flood damage for various socioeconomic, climate and flood adaptation scenarios. Whereas other IAMs have relied on temperature as a climate change proxy, we show that precipitation is a key variable in projecting river flood damage. The way adaptation is accounted for in our flood damage functions has a large influence on the results, highlighting the relevance of modelling local level adaptation in IAMs. Results presented at different spatial scales demonstrate the relevance of river flood damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change and allows for exploration of the spatial distribution of impacts through local estimates.

AB - This study aims to improve the estimates of the economic impacts of climate change by developing a river flood risk model CLIMRISK-RIVER and introducing it into an existing climate-economy integrated assessment model (IAM). It operates on a local scale and can project climate change-related river flood damage for various socioeconomic, climate and flood adaptation scenarios. Whereas other IAMs have relied on temperature as a climate change proxy, we show that precipitation is a key variable in projecting river flood damage. The way adaptation is accounted for in our flood damage functions has a large influence on the results, highlighting the relevance of modelling local level adaptation in IAMs. Results presented at different spatial scales demonstrate the relevance of river flood damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change and allows for exploration of the spatial distribution of impacts through local estimates.

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KW - Integrated assessment modelling

KW - River flood adaptation

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CLIMRISK-RIVER: Accounting for local river flood risk in estimating the economic cost of climate change

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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