Abstract
The methods employed by Magaña et al. (2012; Clim Res 51:171-184) in their analysis of the effects of climate change in northern Mexico are flawed. Our present analysis confirms the results in Estrada et al. (2012; Clim Change 110:1029-1046), demonstrating that the downscaling method in Magaña et al. (2012) is unacceptable for producing regional climate change scenarios. The method generates random spatial patterns and magnitudes that replace the climate signals produced by general circulation models, as well as those contained in the observed local-scale data. Consequently, any application that uses these regional scenarios should not be used for decision-making. The statistical downscaling literature provides a range of methods that are appropriate for producing regional climate change scenarios.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 81-90 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Climate Research |
| Volume | 56 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2013 |
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Keywords
- Mexico
- National climate change documents
- Regional climate change scenarios
- Statistical downscaling
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Comment : Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012). / Estrada, F.; Livezey, R. E.; Martínez-López, Benjamín; Gay-García, C.
In: Climate Research, Vol. 56, No. 1, 2013, p. 81-90.Research output: Contribution to Journal › Review article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Comment
T2 - Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012)
AU - Estrada, F.
AU - Livezey, R. E.
AU - Martínez-López, Benjamín
AU - Gay-García, C.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - The methods employed by Magaña et al. (2012; Clim Res 51:171-184) in their analysis of the effects of climate change in northern Mexico are flawed. Our present analysis confirms the results in Estrada et al. (2012; Clim Change 110:1029-1046), demonstrating that the downscaling method in Magaña et al. (2012) is unacceptable for producing regional climate change scenarios. The method generates random spatial patterns and magnitudes that replace the climate signals produced by general circulation models, as well as those contained in the observed local-scale data. Consequently, any application that uses these regional scenarios should not be used for decision-making. The statistical downscaling literature provides a range of methods that are appropriate for producing regional climate change scenarios.
AB - The methods employed by Magaña et al. (2012; Clim Res 51:171-184) in their analysis of the effects of climate change in northern Mexico are flawed. Our present analysis confirms the results in Estrada et al. (2012; Clim Change 110:1029-1046), demonstrating that the downscaling method in Magaña et al. (2012) is unacceptable for producing regional climate change scenarios. The method generates random spatial patterns and magnitudes that replace the climate signals produced by general circulation models, as well as those contained in the observed local-scale data. Consequently, any application that uses these regional scenarios should not be used for decision-making. The statistical downscaling literature provides a range of methods that are appropriate for producing regional climate change scenarios.
KW - Mexico
KW - National climate change documents
KW - Regional climate change scenarios
KW - Statistical downscaling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84875354306&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84875354306&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3354/cr01154
DO - 10.3354/cr01154
M3 - Review article
VL - 56
SP - 81
EP - 90
JO - Climate Research
JF - Climate Research
SN - 0936-577X
IS - 1
ER -