Comment: Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012)

F. Estrada, R. E. Livezey, Benjamín Martínez-López, C. Gay-García

Research output: Contribution to JournalReview articleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The methods employed by Magaña et al. (2012; Clim Res 51:171-184) in their analysis of the effects of climate change in northern Mexico are flawed. Our present analysis confirms the results in Estrada et al. (2012; Clim Change 110:1029-1046), demonstrating that the downscaling method in Magaña et al. (2012) is unacceptable for producing regional climate change scenarios. The method generates random spatial patterns and magnitudes that replace the climate signals produced by general circulation models, as well as those contained in the observed local-scale data. Consequently, any application that uses these regional scenarios should not be used for decision-making. The statistical downscaling literature provides a range of methods that are appropriate for producing regional climate change scenarios.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)81-90
Number of pages10
JournalClimate Research
Volume56
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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downscaling
Climate change
methodology
regional climate
climate change
climate signal
Decision making
general circulation model
decision making
method
analysis

Keywords

  • Mexico
  • National climate change documents
  • Regional climate change scenarios
  • Statistical downscaling

Cite this

Estrada, F. ; Livezey, R. E. ; Martínez-López, Benjamín ; Gay-García, C. / Comment : Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012). In: Climate Research. 2013 ; Vol. 56, No. 1. pp. 81-90.
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Comment : Revisiting a flawed downscaling methodology: Comment on Magaña et al. (2012). / Estrada, F.; Livezey, R. E.; Martínez-López, Benjamín; Gay-García, C.

In: Climate Research, Vol. 56, No. 1, 2013, p. 81-90.

Research output: Contribution to JournalReview articleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Gay-García, C.

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AB - The methods employed by Magaña et al. (2012; Clim Res 51:171-184) in their analysis of the effects of climate change in northern Mexico are flawed. Our present analysis confirms the results in Estrada et al. (2012; Clim Change 110:1029-1046), demonstrating that the downscaling method in Magaña et al. (2012) is unacceptable for producing regional climate change scenarios. The method generates random spatial patterns and magnitudes that replace the climate signals produced by general circulation models, as well as those contained in the observed local-scale data. Consequently, any application that uses these regional scenarios should not be used for decision-making. The statistical downscaling literature provides a range of methods that are appropriate for producing regional climate change scenarios.

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