Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Timothy R. Baker, Kyle G. Dexter, Simon L. Lewis, Roel J. W. Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, Jon Lloyd, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Luzmila Arroyo, Esteban Alvarez-Davila, Niro Higuchi, Beatriz S. Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Marcos Silveira, Emilio Vilanova, Emanuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Jerome Chave, Jos Barlow, Damien Bonal & 84 others Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Terry Erwin, Sophie Fauset, Bruno Herault, Susan Laurance, Lourens Poorter, Lan Qie, Clement Stahl, Martin J. P. Sullivan, Hans ter Steege, Vincent Antoine Vos, Pieter A. Zuidema, Everton Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz Aragao, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric Arets, Gerardo A. Aymard C, Christopher Baraloto, Plinio Barbosa Camargo, Jorcely G. Barroso, Frans Bongers, Rene Boot, Jose Luis Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Victor Chama Moscoso, James Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Antonio Carlos Lola da Costa, Jhon del Aguila Pasquel, Anthony Di Fiore, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Fernando Elias, Julien Engel, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, David Galbraith, Rafael Herrera Fernandez, Euridice Honorio Coronado, Wannes Hubau, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Adriano Jose Nogueira Lima, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, William Laurance, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Thomas Lovejoy, Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz, Paulo S. Morandi, David Neill, Percy Nunez Vargas, Nadir C. Pallqui Camacho, Alexander Parada Gutierrez, Guido Pardo, Julie Peacock, Marielos Pena-Claros, Maria Cristina Penuela-Mora, Pascal Petronelli, Georgia C. Pickavance, Nigel Pitman, Adriana Prieto, Carlos Quesada, Hirma Ramirez-Angulo, Maxime Rejou-Mechain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Anand Roopsind, Agustin Rudas, Rafael Salomao, Natalino Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, James Singh, Juliana Stropp, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Marisol Toledo, Armando Torres-Lezama, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Peter J. van de Meer, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Cesar Vela, Ima Celia Guimaraes Vieira, Oliver L. Phillips

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.
LanguageEnglish
Pages39-56
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume25
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019

Keywords

  • bioclimatic niches
  • climate change
  • compositional shifts
  • functional traits
  • temporal trends
  • tropical forests

Cite this

Esquivel-Muelbert, A., Baker, T. R., Dexter, K. G., Lewis, S. L., Brienen, R. J. W., Feldpausch, T. R., ... Phillips, O. L. (2019). Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. Global Change Biology, 25(1), 39-56. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14413
Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane ; Baker, Timothy R. ; Dexter, Kyle G. ; Lewis, Simon L. ; Brienen, Roel J. W. ; Feldpausch, Ted R. ; Lloyd, Jon ; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel ; Arroyo, Luzmila ; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban ; Higuchi, Niro ; Marimon, Beatriz S. ; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur ; Silveira, Marcos ; Vilanova, Emilio ; Gloor, Emanuel ; Malhi, Yadvinder ; Chave, Jerome ; Barlow, Jos ; Bonal, Damien ; Davila Cardozo, Nallaret ; Erwin, Terry ; Fauset, Sophie ; Herault, Bruno ; Laurance, Susan ; Poorter, Lourens ; Qie, Lan ; Stahl, Clement ; Sullivan, Martin J. P. ; ter Steege, Hans ; Vos, Vincent Antoine ; Zuidema, Pieter A. ; Almeida, Everton ; Almeida de Oliveira, Edmar ; Andrade, Ana ; Vieira, Simone Aparecida ; Aragao, Luiz ; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro ; Arets, Eric ; Aymard C, Gerardo A. ; Baraloto, Christopher ; Camargo, Plinio Barbosa ; Barroso, Jorcely G. ; Bongers, Frans ; Boot, Rene ; Camargo, Jose Luis ; Castro, Wendeson ; Chama Moscoso, Victor ; Comiskey, James ; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando ; Lola da Costa, Antonio Carlos ; del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon ; Di Fiore, Anthony ; Fernanda Duque, Luisa ; Elias, Fernando ; Engel, Julien ; Flores Llampazo, Gerardo ; Galbraith, David ; Herrera Fernandez, Rafael ; Honorio Coronado, Euridice ; Hubau, Wannes ; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana ; Lima, Adriano Jose Nogueira ; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi ; Laurance, William ; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela ; Lovejoy, Thomas ; Aurelio Melo Cruz, Omar ; Morandi, Paulo S. ; Neill, David ; Nunez Vargas, Percy ; Pallqui Camacho, Nadir C. ; Parada Gutierrez, Alexander ; Pardo, Guido ; Peacock, Julie ; Pena-Claros, Marielos ; Penuela-Mora, Maria Cristina ; Petronelli, Pascal ; Pickavance, Georgia C. ; Pitman, Nigel ; Prieto, Adriana ; Quesada, Carlos ; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma ; Rejou-Mechain, Maxime ; Restrepo Correa, Zorayda ; Roopsind, Anand ; Rudas, Agustin ; Salomao, Rafael ; Silva, Natalino ; Silva Espejo, Javier ; Singh, James ; Stropp, Juliana ; Terborgh, John ; Thomas, Raquel ; Toledo, Marisol ; Torres-Lezama, Armando ; Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis ; van de Meer, Peter J. ; van der Heijden, Geertje ; van der Hout, Peter ; Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo ; Vela, Cesar ; Vieira, Ima Celia Guimaraes ; Phillips, Oliver L. / Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. In: Global Change Biology. 2019 ; Vol. 25, No. 1. pp. 39-56.
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abstract = "Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.",
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journal = "Global Change Biology",
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Esquivel-Muelbert, A, Baker, TR, Dexter, KG, Lewis, SL, Brienen, RJW, Feldpausch, TR, Lloyd, J, Monteagudo-Mendoza, A, Arroyo, L, Alvarez-Davila, E, Higuchi, N, Marimon, BS, Marimon-Junior, BH, Silveira, M, Vilanova, E, Gloor, E, Malhi, Y, Chave, J, Barlow, J, Bonal, D, Davila Cardozo, N, Erwin, T, Fauset, S, Herault, B, Laurance, S, Poorter, L, Qie, L, Stahl, C, Sullivan, MJP, ter Steege, H, Vos, VA, Zuidema, PA, Almeida, E, Almeida de Oliveira, E, Andrade, A, Vieira, SA, Aragao, L, Araujo-Murakami, A, Arets, E, Aymard C, GA, Baraloto, C, Camargo, PB, Barroso, JG, Bongers, F, Boot, R, Camargo, JL, Castro, W, Chama Moscoso, V, Comiskey, J, Cornejo Valverde, F, Lola da Costa, AC, del Aguila Pasquel, J, Di Fiore, A, Fernanda Duque, L, Elias, F, Engel, J, Flores Llampazo, G, Galbraith, D, Herrera Fernandez, R, Honorio Coronado, E, Hubau, W, Jimenez-Rojas, E, Lima, AJN, Umetsu, RK, Laurance, W, Lopez-Gonzalez, G, Lovejoy, T, Aurelio Melo Cruz, O, Morandi, PS, Neill, D, Nunez Vargas, P, Pallqui Camacho, NC, Parada Gutierrez, A, Pardo, G, Peacock, J, Pena-Claros, M, Penuela-Mora, MC, Petronelli, P, Pickavance, GC, Pitman, N, Prieto, A, Quesada, C, Ramirez-Angulo, H, Rejou-Mechain, M, Restrepo Correa, Z, Roopsind, A, Rudas, A, Salomao, R, Silva, N, Silva Espejo, J, Singh, J, Stropp, J, Terborgh, J, Thomas, R, Toledo, M, Torres-Lezama, A, Valenzuela Gamarra, L, van de Meer, PJ, van der Heijden, G, van der Hout, P, Vasquez Martinez, R, Vela, C, Vieira, ICG & Phillips, OL 2019, 'Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change', Global Change Biology, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 39-56. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14413

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. / Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Baker, Timothy R.; Dexter, Kyle G.; Lewis, Simon L.; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Lloyd, Jon; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Arroyo, Luzmila; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban; Higuchi, Niro; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur; Silveira, Marcos; Vilanova, Emilio; Gloor, Emanuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Chave, Jerome; Barlow, Jos; Bonal, Damien; Davila Cardozo, Nallaret; Erwin, Terry; Fauset, Sophie; Herault, Bruno; Laurance, Susan; Poorter, Lourens; Qie, Lan; Stahl, Clement; Sullivan, Martin J. P.; ter Steege, Hans; Vos, Vincent Antoine; Zuidema, Pieter A.; Almeida, Everton; Almeida de Oliveira, Edmar; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Aragao, Luiz; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric; Aymard C, Gerardo A.; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Plinio Barbosa; Barroso, Jorcely G.; Bongers, Frans; Boot, Rene; Camargo, Jose Luis; Castro, Wendeson; Chama Moscoso, Victor; Comiskey, James; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Lola da Costa, Antonio Carlos; del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon; Di Fiore, Anthony; Fernanda Duque, Luisa; Elias, Fernando; Engel, Julien; Flores Llampazo, Gerardo; Galbraith, David; Herrera Fernandez, Rafael; Honorio Coronado, Euridice; Hubau, Wannes; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana; Lima, Adriano Jose Nogueira; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi; Laurance, William; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lovejoy, Thomas; Aurelio Melo Cruz, Omar; Morandi, Paulo S.; Neill, David; Nunez Vargas, Percy; Pallqui Camacho, Nadir C.; Parada Gutierrez, Alexander; Pardo, Guido; Peacock, Julie; Pena-Claros, Marielos; Penuela-Mora, Maria Cristina; Petronelli, Pascal; Pickavance, Georgia C.; Pitman, Nigel; Prieto, Adriana; Quesada, Carlos; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Rejou-Mechain, Maxime; Restrepo Correa, Zorayda; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustin; Salomao, Rafael; Silva, Natalino; Silva Espejo, Javier; Singh, James; Stropp, Juliana; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Toledo, Marisol; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis; van de Meer, Peter J.; van der Heijden, Geertje; van der Hout, Peter; Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo; Vela, Cesar; Vieira, Ima Celia Guimaraes; Phillips, Oliver L.

In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, No. 1, 01.2019, p. 39-56.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

AU - Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane

AU - Baker, Timothy R.

AU - Dexter, Kyle G.

AU - Lewis, Simon L.

AU - Brienen, Roel J. W.

AU - Feldpausch, Ted R.

AU - Lloyd, Jon

AU - Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel

AU - Arroyo, Luzmila

AU - Alvarez-Davila, Esteban

AU - Higuchi, Niro

AU - Marimon, Beatriz S.

AU - Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur

AU - Silveira, Marcos

AU - Vilanova, Emilio

AU - Gloor, Emanuel

AU - Malhi, Yadvinder

AU - Chave, Jerome

AU - Barlow, Jos

AU - Bonal, Damien

AU - Davila Cardozo, Nallaret

AU - Erwin, Terry

AU - Fauset, Sophie

AU - Herault, Bruno

AU - Laurance, Susan

AU - Poorter, Lourens

AU - Qie, Lan

AU - Stahl, Clement

AU - Sullivan, Martin J. P.

AU - ter Steege, Hans

AU - Vos, Vincent Antoine

AU - Zuidema, Pieter A.

AU - Almeida, Everton

AU - Almeida de Oliveira, Edmar

AU - Andrade, Ana

AU - Vieira, Simone Aparecida

AU - Aragao, Luiz

AU - Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro

AU - Arets, Eric

AU - Aymard C, Gerardo A.

AU - Baraloto, Christopher

AU - Camargo, Plinio Barbosa

AU - Barroso, Jorcely G.

AU - Bongers, Frans

AU - Boot, Rene

AU - Camargo, Jose Luis

AU - Castro, Wendeson

AU - Chama Moscoso, Victor

AU - Comiskey, James

AU - Cornejo Valverde, Fernando

AU - Lola da Costa, Antonio Carlos

AU - del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon

AU - Di Fiore, Anthony

AU - Fernanda Duque, Luisa

AU - Elias, Fernando

AU - Engel, Julien

AU - Flores Llampazo, Gerardo

AU - Galbraith, David

AU - Herrera Fernandez, Rafael

AU - Honorio Coronado, Euridice

AU - Hubau, Wannes

AU - Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana

AU - Lima, Adriano Jose Nogueira

AU - Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi

AU - Laurance, William

AU - Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela

AU - Lovejoy, Thomas

AU - Aurelio Melo Cruz, Omar

AU - Morandi, Paulo S.

AU - Neill, David

AU - Nunez Vargas, Percy

AU - Pallqui Camacho, Nadir C.

AU - Parada Gutierrez, Alexander

AU - Pardo, Guido

AU - Peacock, Julie

AU - Pena-Claros, Marielos

AU - Penuela-Mora, Maria Cristina

AU - Petronelli, Pascal

AU - Pickavance, Georgia C.

AU - Pitman, Nigel

AU - Prieto, Adriana

AU - Quesada, Carlos

AU - Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma

AU - Rejou-Mechain, Maxime

AU - Restrepo Correa, Zorayda

AU - Roopsind, Anand

AU - Rudas, Agustin

AU - Salomao, Rafael

AU - Silva, Natalino

AU - Silva Espejo, Javier

AU - Singh, James

AU - Stropp, Juliana

AU - Terborgh, John

AU - Thomas, Raquel

AU - Toledo, Marisol

AU - Torres-Lezama, Armando

AU - Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis

AU - van de Meer, Peter J.

AU - van der Heijden, Geertje

AU - van der Hout, Peter

AU - Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo

AU - Vela, Cesar

AU - Vieira, Ima Celia Guimaraes

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

PY - 2019/1

Y1 - 2019/1

N2 - Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

AB - Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

KW - bioclimatic niches

KW - climate change

KW - compositional shifts

KW - functional traits

KW - temporal trends

KW - tropical forests

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14413

DO - 10.1111/gcb.14413

M3 - Article

VL - 25

SP - 39

EP - 56

JO - Global Change Biology

T2 - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 1

ER -

Esquivel-Muelbert A, Baker TR, Dexter KG, Lewis SL, Brienen RJW, Feldpausch TR et al. Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. Global Change Biology. 2019 Jan;25(1):39-56. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14413