Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia

Yuanfang Chai; Yao Yue; Louise J. Slater; Jiabo Yin; Alistair G.L. Borthwick; Tiexi Chen; Guojie Wang

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7

Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia

Yuanfang Chai, Yao Yue^*, Louise J. Slater, Jiabo Yin, Alistair G.L. Borthwick, Tiexi Chen, Guojie Wang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Earth and Climate

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world’s population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970–2014) and precipitation (2015–2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1–31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year⁻¹ (29.36 mm °C⁻¹, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year⁻¹ (20.03 mm °C⁻¹, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year⁻¹ (17.96 mm °C⁻¹, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year⁻¹ (17.28 mm °C⁻¹, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0–14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4–11.6% and −2.1–13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5–40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.

Original language	English
Article number	4124
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7
Publication status	Published - 15 Jul 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Y.Y. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52079094), the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600901), and the Youth Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41601275). Y.C acknowledges support from the China Scholarship Council. L.J.S. acknowledges support from UK Research and Innovation (Grant No. MR/V022008/1). J.Y. acknowledges support from the Youth Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52009091). A.G.L.B. acknowledges support from UK NERC Global Challenges Research Fund (Grant No. NE/S009000/1). T.C. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42161144003 and 42130506). G.W. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41875094).

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© 2022, The Author(s).

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title = "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia",

abstract = "Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world{\textquoteright}s population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970–2014) and precipitation (2015–2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1–31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year−1 (29.36 mm °C−1, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year−1 (20.03 mm °C−1, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year−1 (17.96 mm °C−1, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year−1 (17.28 mm °C−1, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0–14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4–11.6% and −2.1–13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5–40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.",

author = "Yuanfang Chai and Yao Yue and Slater, {Louise J.} and Jiabo Yin and Borthwick, {Alistair G.L.} and Tiexi Chen and Guojie Wang",

note = "Funding Information: Y.Y. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52079094), the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600901), and the Youth Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41601275). Y.C acknowledges support from the China Scholarship Council. L.J.S. acknowledges support from UK Research and Innovation (Grant No. MR/V022008/1). J.Y. acknowledges support from the Youth Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52009091). A.G.L.B. acknowledges support from UK NERC Global Challenges Research Fund (Grant No. NE/S009000/1). T.C. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42161144003 and 42130506). G.W. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41875094). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

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AU - Borthwick, Alistair G.L.

AU - Chen, Tiexi

AU - Wang, Guojie

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N2 - Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world’s population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970–2014) and precipitation (2015–2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1–31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year−1 (29.36 mm °C−1, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year−1 (20.03 mm °C−1, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year−1 (17.96 mm °C−1, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year−1 (17.28 mm °C−1, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0–14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4–11.6% and −2.1–13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5–40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.

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Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia

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