Corona scenario’s vragen om een welvaartseconomische visie

The scenario study published at the beginning of September 2022 under the direction of the Scientific Council for Government Policy in the Netherlands outlines which social reactions can evoke various possible developments in the corona virus and which policy instruments should be available when these scenarios become real. This article argues that quantification in a ‘wishscenario’ (teleological scenario) is necessary, in which it can be indicated which policy measures have the least impact on social welfare compared to a world without corona. To this end, it is necessary to identify the most desirable but also feasible scenario ('the wishscenario') and to try as best as possible to attune the policy to the realization of that scenario and the welfare-economic considerations implemented in it. Unfavorable (or favorable) developments of the virus can lead to stricter and, from a social perspective, more expensive (or less strict and expensive) policy measures. Confrontation with the desired scenario then indicates to what extent the political trade-off between public health and other components of social welfare should be changed as a result.