Current and Future Tropical Cyclone Wind Risk in the Small Island Developing States

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are amongst the costliest and deadliest natural hazards and can cause widespread havoc in tropical coastal areas. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to TCs, as they generally have limited financial resources to overcome past impacts and mitigate future risk. However, risk assessments for SIDS are scarce due to limited meteorological, exposure, and vulnerability data. In this study, we combine recent research advances in these three disciplines to estimate TC wind risk under past (1980–2017) and near-future (2015–2050) climate conditions. Our results show that TC risk strongly differs per region, with 91% of all risk constituted in the North Atlantic. The highest risk estimates are found for the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, with present-climate expected annual damages (EAD) of 1.51 billion and 1.25 billion USD, respectively. This study provides valuable insights in TC risk and its spatial distribution, and can serve as input for future studies on TC risk mitigation in the SIDS.