Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: An application of FUND

D. Narita, D. Anthoff, R.S.J. Tol

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), Version 3.4. The results show that in the basic case (parameter levels based on intermediate estimates), the direct economic damage caused by tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change would amount to US$19 billion globally in the year 2100 (almost the same level as the baseline, i.e. current global damage of tropical cyclones), while the ratio to world gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.006%. The USA and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas Small Island States incur the largest damage if evaluated as the proportion of GDP. Model results were sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage. © Inter-Research 2009.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)87-97
Number of pages11
JournalClimate Research
Volume39
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

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tropical cyclone
Climate change
damage
climate change
Gross Domestic Product
cost
Costs
small island state
storm damage
Climate models
Economic and social effects
economics
economic impact
Economics
elasticity
climate modeling
wind velocity
Elasticity
distribution
Uncertainty

Cite this

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title = "Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: An application of FUND",
abstract = "Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), Version 3.4. The results show that in the basic case (parameter levels based on intermediate estimates), the direct economic damage caused by tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change would amount to US$19 billion globally in the year 2100 (almost the same level as the baseline, i.e. current global damage of tropical cyclones), while the ratio to world gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.006{\%}. The USA and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas Small Island States incur the largest damage if evaluated as the proportion of GDP. Model results were sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage. {\circledC} Inter-Research 2009.",
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Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: An application of FUND. / Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

In: Climate Research, Vol. 39, 2009, p. 87-97.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

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AU - Tol, R.S.J.

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AB - Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), Version 3.4. The results show that in the basic case (parameter levels based on intermediate estimates), the direct economic damage caused by tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change would amount to US$19 billion globally in the year 2100 (almost the same level as the baseline, i.e. current global damage of tropical cyclones), while the ratio to world gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.006%. The USA and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas Small Island States incur the largest damage if evaluated as the proportion of GDP. Model results were sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage. © Inter-Research 2009.

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