This paper estimates Age-Period-Cohort models on employment rates of Dutch Disability Insurance (DI) applicants. We find that the substantial decrease in employment between 1999 and 2013 is explained by year-of-Application cohort effects and that period effects are negligible. In turn, application cohort effects partly stem from increasing shares of applicants without permanent contracts. Changes in application cohort effects are largely confined to the years following two DI reforms that increased self-screening among workers. We next analyze changes in employment rates of awarded and rejected applicants and follow a Difference-in-Differences approach. Assuming common compositional cohort effects, we infer negligible effects of changes in benefit conditions.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This research is sponsored by Instituut Gak. The authors are grateful to Patrick Hullegie for his indispensable work on the data. They also thank Nicole Maestas, Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek, Eric French, Astrid Grasdal, Lawrence Katz, Marike Knoef, Carla van Deursen, Barend Barentsen and seminar participants at the Dutch Economists Day of 2019, the University of Bergen, the University of Nantes, the KVS New Paper Sessions of 2019 and the EALE/SOLE/AASLE World Meeting of 2020 for useful comments to presentations and earlier drafts of the paper.
© 2021 Pierre Koning et al., published by De Gruyter, Berlin/Boston 2021.
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
- APC models
- disability insurance