Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity

Thomas de Graaff, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ceren Ozgen

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Persistence of high youth unemployment and dismal labour market outcomes are imminent concerns for most European economies. The relationship between demographic ageing and employment outcomes is even more worrying once the relationship is scrutinized at the regional level. We focus on modelling regional heterogeneity. We argue that an average impact across regions is often not very useful, and that—conditional on the region’s characteristics—impacts may differ significantly. We advocate the use of modelling varying level and slope effects, and specifically to cluster them by the use of latent class or finite mixture models (FMMs). Moreover, in order to fully exploit the output from the FMM, we adopt self-organizing maps to understand the composition of the resulting segmentation and as a way to depict the underlying regional similarities that would otherwise be missed if a standard approach was adopted. We apply our proposed method to a case-study of Germany where we show that the regional impact of young age cohorts on the labor market is indeed very heterogeneous across regions and our results are robust against potential endogeneity bias.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationModelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets
EditorsRoger R. Stough, Karima Kourtit, Peter Nijkamp, Uwe Blien
PublisherSpringer International Publishing Switzerland
Pages211-231
Number of pages21
ISBN (Electronic)9783319685632
ISBN (Print)9783319685625
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Publication series

NameAdvances in Spatial Science
ISSN (Print)1430-9602
ISSN (Electronic)2197-9375

Fingerprint

demographic aging
labor market
youth unemployment
modeling
unemployment
segmentation
persistence
economy
trend
Modeling
Employment dynamics
Demographics
Finite mixture models

Cite this

Graaff, T. D., Arribas-Bel, D., & Ozgen, C. (2018). Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity. In R. R. Stough, K. Kourtit, P. Nijkamp, & U. Blien (Eds.), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets (pp. 211-231). (Advances in Spatial Science). Springer International Publishing Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68563-2_11
Graaff, Thomas de ; Arribas-Bel, Daniel ; Ozgen, Ceren. / Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions : Modeling Regional Heterogeneity. Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets. editor / Roger R. Stough ; Karima Kourtit ; Peter Nijkamp ; Uwe Blien. Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 2018. pp. 211-231 (Advances in Spatial Science).
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Graaff, TD, Arribas-Bel, D & Ozgen, C 2018, Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity. in RR Stough, K Kourtit, P Nijkamp & U Blien (eds), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets. Advances in Spatial Science, Springer International Publishing Switzerland, pp. 211-231. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68563-2_11

Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions : Modeling Regional Heterogeneity. / Graaff, Thomas de; Arribas-Bel, Daniel; Ozgen, Ceren.

Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets. ed. / Roger R. Stough; Karima Kourtit; Peter Nijkamp; Uwe Blien. Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 2018. p. 211-231 (Advances in Spatial Science).

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

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Graaff TD, Arribas-Bel D, Ozgen C. Demographic Aging and Employment Dynamics in German Regions: Modeling Regional Heterogeneity. In Stough RR, Kourtit K, Nijkamp P, Blien U, editors, Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets. Springer International Publishing Switzerland. 2018. p. 211-231. (Advances in Spatial Science). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68563-2_11