Development of Prediction Model for the Prognosis of Sick Leave Due to Low Back Pain

Lisa C. Bosman*, Jos W.R. Twisk, Anna S. Geraedts, Martijn W. Heymans

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review


Objective:The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for the prognosis of sick leave due to low back pain (LBP).Methods:This is a cohort study with 103 employees sick-listed due to non-specific LBP and spinal disc herniation. A prediction model was developed based on questionnaire data and registered sick leave data with follow up of 180 days.Results:At follow up 31 (30.1%) employees were still sick-listed due to LBP. Forward selection procedure resulted in a model with: catastrophizing, musculoskeletal work load, and disability. The explained variance was 27.3%, calibration was adequate and discrimination was fair with area under the ROC-curve (AUC) = 0.761 (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.755-0.770).Conclusion:The prediction model of this study can adequately predict LBP sick leave after 180 days and could be used for employees sick listed due LBP.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1065-1071
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2019


  • absenteeism
  • low back pain
  • prediction models
  • prognostic research
  • return to work


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