Abstract
The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 20-29 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Nature Climate Change |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Early online date | 23 Dec 2019 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Jan 2020 |
Funding
We thank R. Blackport, C. Deser, L. Sun, J. Screen and D. Smith for discussions and suggested revisions to the manuscript. We also thank J. Screen and L. Sun for model data. A. Amin helped to create Fig. 2. US CLIVAR logistically and financially supported the Arctic-Midlatitude Working Group and Arctic Change and its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate and Weather workshop that resulted in this article. J.C. is supported by the US National Science Foundation grants AGS-1657748 and PLR-1504361, 1901352. M.W. acknowledges funding by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft project no. 268020496– TRR 172, within the Transregional Collaborative Research Center “Arctic Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC)3”. T.V. was supported by the Academy of Finland grant 317999. J.O. was supported by the NOAA Arctic Research Program. J.F. was supported by the Woods Hole Research Center. S.W. and H.G. are supported by the US DOE Award Number DE-SC0016605. J.Y. was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMI2018-01015 and National Research Foundation grant NRF_2017R1A2B4007480. D.H. is supported by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers (grant FKZ HRSF-0036, project POLEX). The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s PCMDI provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers | FKZ HRSF-0036 |
| J.C. | |
| Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program | |
| NOAA Arctic Research Program | |
| US National Science Foundation | AGS-1657748 |
| Woods Hole Research Center | |
| National Science Foundation | 1901352, PLR-1901352, 1502208, PLR-1504361, 1657748 |
| U.S. Department of Energy | DE-SC0016605 |
| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | |
| Arthritis National Research Foundation | NRF_2017R1A2B4007480 |
| Natural Environment Research Council | NE/T009470/1, cpom30001 |
| Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft | 268020496– TRR 172 |
| Academy of Finland | 317999 |
| Korea Meteorological Administration | KMI2018-01015 |
| National Research Foundation of Korea | |
| Helmholtz Association |
