Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

J. Cohen; X. Zhang; J. Francis; T. Jung; R. Kwok; J. Overland; T. J. Ballinger; U. S. Bhatt; H. W. Chen; D. Coumou; S. Feldstein; H. Gu; D. Handorf; G. Henderson; M. Ionita; M. Kretschmer; F. Laliberte; S. Lee; H. W. Linderholm; W. Maslowski; Y. Peings; K. Pfeiffer; I. Rigor; T. Semmler; J. Stroeve; P. C. Taylor; S. Vavrus; T. Vihma; S. Wang; M. Wendisch; Y. Wu; J. Yoon

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y

Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

J. Cohen^*
, X. Zhang
, J. Francis
, T. Jung
, R. Kwok
, J. Overland
, T. J. Ballinger
, U. S. Bhatt
, H. W. Chen
, D. Coumou
, S. Feldstein
, H. Gu
, D. Handorf
, G. Henderson
, M. Ionita
, M. Kretschmer
, F. Laliberte
, S. Lee
, H. W. Linderholm
, W. Maslowski

Y. Peings, K. Pfeiffer, I. Rigor, T. Semmler, J. Stroeve, P. C. Taylor, S. Vavrus, T. Vihma, S. Wang, M. Wendisch, Y. Wu, J. Yoon

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	20-29
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	10
Issue number	1
Early online date	23 Dec 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y
Publication status	Published - Jan 2020

Funding

We thank R. Blackport, C. Deser, L. Sun, J. Screen and D. Smith for discussions and suggested revisions to the manuscript. We also thank J. Screen and L. Sun for model data. A. Amin helped to create Fig. 2. US CLIVAR logistically and financially supported the Arctic-Midlatitude Working Group and Arctic Change and its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate and Weather workshop that resulted in this article. J.C. is supported by the US National Science Foundation grants AGS-1657748 and PLR-1504361, 1901352. M.W. acknowledges funding by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft project no. 268020496– TRR 172, within the Transregional Collaborative Research Center “Arctic Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC)3”. T.V. was supported by the Academy of Finland grant 317999. J.O. was supported by the NOAA Arctic Research Program. J.F. was supported by the Woods Hole Research Center. S.W. and H.G. are supported by the US DOE Award Number DE-SC0016605. J.Y. was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMI2018-01015 and National Research Foundation grant NRF_2017R1A2B4007480. D.H. is supported by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers (grant FKZ HRSF-0036, project POLEX). The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s PCMDI provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

Funders	Funder number
National Research Foundation of Korea
Helmholtz Association
Medical Research Council
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Woods Hole Research Center
NOAA Arctic Research Program
Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program
J.C.
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/T009470/1, cpom30001
National Science Foundation	1901352, PLR-1901352, 1504361, 1502208, PLR-1504361, 1657748
Academy of Finland	317999
Arthritis National Research Foundation	NRF_2017R1A2B4007480
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft	268020496– TRR 172
US National Science Foundation	AGS-1657748
U.S. Department of Energy	DE-SC0016605
Korea Meteorological Administration	KMI2018-01015
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers	FKZ HRSF-0036

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

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Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weatherFinal published version, 6.78 MBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

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Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J., Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W., Coumou, D., Feldstein, S., Gu, H., Handorf, D., Henderson, G., Ionita, M., Kretschmer, M., Laliberte, F., Lee, S., Linderholm, H. W., ... Yoon, J. (2020). Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nature Climate Change, 10(1), 20-29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y

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abstract = "The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.",

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Cohen, J, Zhang, X, Francis, J, Jung, T, Kwok, R, Overland, J, Ballinger, TJ, Bhatt, US, Chen, HW, Coumou, D, Feldstein, S, Gu, H, Handorf, D, Henderson, G, Ionita, M, Kretschmer, M, Laliberte, F, Lee, S, Linderholm, HW, Maslowski, W, Peings, Y, Pfeiffer, K, Rigor, I, Semmler, T, Stroeve, J, Taylor, PC, Vavrus, S, Vihma, T, Wang, S, Wendisch, M, Wu, Y & Yoon, J 2020, 'Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather', Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 20-29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y

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T1 - Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

AU - Cohen, J.

AU - Zhang, X.

AU - Francis, J.

AU - Jung, T.

AU - Kwok, R.

AU - Overland, J.

AU - Ballinger, T. J.

AU - Bhatt, U. S.

AU - Chen, H. W.

AU - Coumou, D.

AU - Feldstein, S.

AU - Gu, H.

AU - Handorf, D.

AU - Henderson, G.

AU - Ionita, M.

AU - Kretschmer, M.

AU - Laliberte, F.

AU - Lee, S.

AU - Linderholm, H. W.

AU - Maslowski, W.

AU - Peings, Y.

AU - Pfeiffer, K.

AU - Rigor, I.

AU - Semmler, T.

AU - Stroeve, J.

AU - Taylor, P. C.

AU - Vavrus, S.

AU - Vihma, T.

AU - Wang, S.

AU - Wendisch, M.

AU - Wu, Y.

AU - Yoon, J.

PY - 2020/1

Y1 - 2020/1

N2 - The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.

AB - The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.

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DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:85077169689

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 10

SP - 20

EP - 29

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 1

ER -

Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

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UN SDGs

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