Do floods have permanent effects? Evidence from the Netherlands

T.G. Husby, H.L.F. de Groot, M.W. Hofkes, M.I. Dröes

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long-term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood-prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)355-377
JournalJournal of Regional Science
Volume54
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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natural disaster
Netherlands
evidence
population growth
disaster
population dynamics
population development
mitigation
effect
hazard
cost
costs

Cite this

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Do floods have permanent effects? Evidence from the Netherlands. / Husby, T.G.; de Groot, H.L.F.; Hofkes, M.W.; Dröes, M.I.

In: Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 54, No. 3, 2014, p. 355-377.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AB - This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long-term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood-prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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DO - 10.1111/jors.12112

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JO - Journal of Regional Science

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